Even though Obama had met with prominent officials of Russia and China during the G-20 summit, his administration's response to North Korea's recent missile launch very wrongly predicted a punitive rather supportive reaction of these powers to North Korea. How could the Obama administration be oblivious to how these powers would respond?
While President Obama was hobnobbing with Europe's finest at the G-20 summit , North Korea in defiance of the West launched a Taepo Dong 2 three stage missile. This was in clear violation of an existing United Nations Resolution 1718, adopted after North Korea's nuclear test in 2006, which bans any ballistic missile activity by North Korea and imposes a trade embargo for North Korea on missile parts and other weapons-related products as well as luxuries.
Prior to the launching of the missile Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, had held a news conference in Mexico City where she said according to the Associated Press "We have made it very clear that the North Koreans pursue this pathway at a cost and with consequences to the six-party talks, which we would like to see revived," Clinton said. She continued "We intend to raise this violation of the Security Council resolution, if it goes forward, in the U.N.," she said. "This provocative action in violation of the U.N. mandate will not go unnoticed and there will be consequences.
President Obama and his administration have promised that their relationship with foreign nations will seek commonality in purpose and be much more communicative than that of President Bush. The new President has repeatedly said that he will deliver on cooperation. From the statements made by Sec. Clinton you would have expected that the Obama administration had already confidently discussed the matter with leading members of the Security Council and was expecting a different outcome then what resulted.
Immediately after the launch the Russian government applauded the successful placement of a North Korean satellite into space in a statement on the Russia Foreign Ministry's official Web site, attributed to spokesman Andrei Nesterenko. They disputed the claims of American observers that the rocket fell short in the Pacific Ocean without placing a satellite in orbit. These is the same government that Mr. Obama said had given him fruitful assurances of cooperation that same day.
In an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council American Ambassador, Susan Rice, stated the the launch was a clear violation of Resolution 1718 but both Russia and China who had met with President Obama in Europe indicated that the launch could be interpreted as a legitimate peaceful space exploration. At best what was agreed upon was to study the situation. Did Ambassador Rice walk into the UN on a "cold call" to discuss an issue that she had never discussed with other members of the Security Council? If she had known what their reaction would have been would it have been wise to proceed in the matter that she did which only embarrassed the United States?
Let's compare this situation with what happened in 2006 under the Bush Administration when North Korea tested an underground nuclear weapon. At that time John Bolton, the American UN Ambassador, was able to get the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Japan to agree to put stiff sanctions on North Korea. All member nations were blocked with trading with North Korea in anything that could be used in nuclear technology and all assets related to these types of trades were frozen.
In Five Member Nation talks which included the U.S, South Korea, China, Russia and Japan most if not all of the North Korean Nuclear reactor program was shut down over the next year in return for which they received shipments of oil from South Korea.
Just before the American election BBC News reported that North Korea was voiding all contracts with South Korea. Not surprisingly just three days before President Obama's inauguration , there were suspicions that North Korea was starting to make high grade nuclear material which could be used for nuclear weapons. To be fair, the North Koreans have been playing the game with Washington since the Clinton administration with a pattern of give in for awhile then violate which repeats over and over.
What is disturbing here is not that North Korea has once again come off the wagon but that President Obama seems less capable to garner cooperation from the international community in this key security matter than his predecessor. On top of that is that the strong language being given out by the administration before the recent North Korean launch suggested that they were expecting a much different reaction from Russia and China then actually resulted.
We cannot expect our diplomats and President to always persuade the world to our point of view but it becomes very uncomfortable for Americans when the administration in this case seemed to be totally "way off base" on predicting the reaction of China and Russia to the launch. This raises a serious question as to whether they are living in a dream world and cannot tell the difference between the reality of current world politics and their ideal world.
You cannot build cooperation and harmony in the world if you do not even know what other countries are thinking. On the contrary there is great risk that misinterpretation of other nations intentions could lead to inescapable provocations or worse.
Dr. Tony Magana was raised in McAllen Texas, attended Texas A&M;University, and holds a doctorate from Harvard University. He has served in the United States Army Reserve. He is a member of the National Association of Hispanic Journalists.
