By Col. Bill Connor ——Bio and Archives--November 3, 2023
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Following the heinous murderous attacks by Hamas against Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, Israel declared war for the first time in half a century. The last Israeli war declaration came when Egypt conducted a sneak attack on Israel on Yom Kippur in 1973, crossing the Suez Canal into Israeli controlled Sinai. Likewise, the Oct. 7 attack came on the 50th anniversary of the ‘73 war and on Sukkot, the festival honoring of God for His protection of the Hebrew people during the 40 years they spent in the Wilderness.
Unlike the 1973 war which lasted for 19 days, the current war is nearing a month with no sign of slowing. Since Hamas terrorists ran back into Gaza after their murderous rampage, most expected Israel to immediately conduct a full-scale ground assault into Gaza. With weeks gone by since the Oct. 7 massacre many wonder about Israel’s plan for its stated goal of the destruction of Hamas.
The first thing to understand is the ubiquitous threats to Israel’s existence and the manpower requirements to defend against those threats. Gaza is in the southwestern part of Israel, but to the north is Lebanon where an estimated 150,000 Iranian proxy Hezbollah fighters are located with thousands of missiles. Both Iran and Hezbollah have threatened to attack Israel if it invades Gaza, Israel must have forces ready to immediately face that northern threat. Additionally, the Fatah led Palestinians of the West Bank in central eastern Israel form a substantial potential threat that Israel must dedicate forces to counter. Iran has threatened Israel with missile strikes and has forces and proxies in Syria touching the northeast border of Israel at the Golan Heights. Israel must track and dedicate forces to these threats before committing to a full ground invasion of the heavily urban Gaza.
The Hamas attack was not only heinous and barbaric, but terrorists filmed atrocities against women, children and even babies. That kind of attack and then quick retrograde with kidnapped civilians (to hide behind Palestinian civilians in Gaza) indicates Hamas was attempting to goad Israel into a quick ground invasion of Gaza.
Hamas has dug hundreds of miles of tunnels underneath the civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and schools, of Gaza. Hamas has put its weapon systems among civilians in Gaza. Hamas has had years to prepare for an Israeli invasion and has over 200 civilian hostages. The Israeli military planners likely determined the worst course of action would be for Israel to attempt a precipitous invasion and play into the enemy’s plan.
Instead, Israel appears to be taking its time to target Hamas leaders, weapons, communication and other resources critical to Hamas. The Israeli Army is conducting military raids into Gaza and gaining footholds without becoming bogged down. It likely has intelligence about the tunnel systems and targeting capabilities like pumping oxygen into tunnels.
A critical consideration: Israel’s national defense is reliant on a citizen-soldier Army. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) consist of a tiny regular force but a huge reserve component in which every Israeli man and woman must serve as a reservist throughout their working age lives. In perspective, the entire nation of Israel consists of only around seven-million non-Palestinian Israelis, and so similar in size to just over the population of South Carolina. Note that the National Guard of South Carolina is just over ten thousand, while Israel has called up over 360,000 reservists (beyond those serving in the regular army). This is a huge proportion of the Israeli workforce, causing much of the economy to Israel to grind to a halt over time. During prior Israeli wars, like the six-day war in 1967 or the 19-day war in 1973, Reserve activation had to end quickly due to the potential dire economic effects of a lengthy war.
In terms of manpower, urban combat is by far the most manpower intensive. Israel cannot afford to have the bulk of its activated reserve troops stuck in Gaza for lengthy periods of time. Therefore, the IDF is taking its time to hit critical Hamas infrastructure and leadership while targeting small ground assault formations into key parts of Gaza.
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The IDF is likely busy behind the scenes with special operations raids and missile strikes while it appears on the surface that Israel is hesitating to launch a ground assault. Israel is forcing Hamas to remain waiting for an imminent all-out urban assault while methodically destroying Hamas and creating conditions to allow for thrusts into Gaza. Israel wisely did not play into what the enemy believed would happen of getting Israel bogged down in urban warfare while having Hezbollah attack from the north. We are now learning of apparent frustration by Hamas, as the IDF discovered the skull of a kidnapped and raped 23-year-old German-Jewish girl, Shani Louk. Hamas terrorists cut off her head, instead of attempting to use her as a bargaining chip. It is likely that Hamas leaders now realize Israeli will not back down from destroying Hamas and hostages are becoming useless to them.
We should expect to see more violent manifestations of Hamas frustration as their power comes to an end. After what happened Oct. 7, and continues against innocent civilians like Shani Louk, we must stand with Israel’s commitment to end the evil of Hamas forever.
– Col. Bill Connor is a retired U.S. Army Infantry officer, attorney, and founding partner of NATIONAL DEFENSE CONSULTANTS, LLC. While in the Army, Connor logged multiple deployments to the Middle East, and he has commanded both light Infantry and Ranger training companies. From 2007 through 2008 he was deployed to Afghanistan where he became the senior U.S. military adviser in Helmand Province. Since the start of the October 2023 war in Israel, he has provided analysis to NEWSMAX.
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