By David Singer ——Bio and Archives--January 17, 2020
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Speaker Pelosi's decision to finally transmit the Trump impeachment papers to the Senate seems set to see highly-biased reporting by the mass media of Trump's trial. "Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win."NYT subsequently blamed the polls for its own analytical shortcomings in an article on 10 November headlined:
"How data failed us in calling election"CNN was scarcely better when reporting on 8 November:
"Hillary Clinton's odds of winning the presidency rose from 78% last week to 91% Monday before Election Day, according to CNN's Political Prediction Market. Clinton's odds have always been much greater than her opponent, Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to the prediction market, although they had dropped last week… … CNN's Political Prediction Market is an online game administered by the company Pivit, which functions like an online market and allows Internet users to predict the outcome of the 2016 election. It is not to be confused with polls from real voters. With one day to go before Election Day, CNN's Poll of Polls shows Clinton leading Trump by a narrow 4-point margin: 46% to 42%."Basing any analysis on a game was irresponsible journalism indeed. CNN hasn't stopped playing the "Get Trump Game" since.
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"Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are tied in the new Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll which finds Trump now holds an edge on which candidate is honest and trustworthy. A 59 percent majority of likely voters disapprove of Clinton's handling of questions about her use of personal email while secretary of state. This number, however, is no higher than the 60 percent who disapproved just over one week ago, before the FBI's announcement Friday that it may examine additional emails after previously closing its investigation in June. However, Trump has opened up an eight-point advantage over Clinton on which candidate is more honest and trustworthy, leading 46 to 38 percent among likely voters. The two candidates were tied on this measure the last time a Post-ABC poll asked the question in September; when asked individually, past polls found majorities seeing each candidate as dishonest."
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David Singer is an Australian Lawyer, a Foundation Member of the International Analyst Network and Convenor of Jordan is Palestine International—an organization calling for sovereignty of the West Bank and Gaza to be allocated between Israel and Jordan as the two successor States to the Mandate for Palestine. Previous articles written by him can be found at: jordanispalestine.blogspot.com