McConnell delays Senate health care vote until after July 4 recess

In the end, it won't matter how long it took for the bill to pass as long as it passes, except to the extent it delays momentum on other priorities, particularly tax reform. But the delay might make it harder to keep together the support the bill has. The media was absolutely gleeful on Monday when the Congressional Budget Office claimed the Senate bill would throw 22 million people off their health insurance. As we explained, that's not at all an accurate reading of what will happen or why. But this is politics, not reality, and it's the perfect talking point to use in scaring nervous Republicans over the next few weeks. Expect a very hard sell between now and the end of the recess by Democrats and their media megaphones. They'll hammer the idea that thousands of people will die if the bill passes. This is completely absurd, of course, because all the bill does is change the manner by which health insurance is purchased, and who is eligible for Medicaid. It doesn't keep anyone from actually getting insurance, and it frees up all kinds of market forces that will make both care and coverage more accessible. But again, this is politics, not reality. The goal will be to scare the bejeezus out of every Republican senator, such that they believe the voters will engage in a revolt against them if they vote for the bill.

Then again, that is not going to scare the four holdouts. They're the ones who want to make the bill even more conservative, which is good in terms of policy but will make it more difficult to hold together any sort of majority to pass the thing, let alone get something successfully out of conference committee later so it can pass both the House and the Senate and go to President Trump for his signature. This was always going to be very difficult to accomplish. In that respect, it's keeping its promise 100 percent.