By Jack Dini ——Bio and Archives--June 19, 2023
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Net zero and its corollary the "energy transition" are talked about often and so loosely that many take them for granted as worthy goals that could be accomplished with greater buy-in from political and business leaders. But two new reports form the utility industry should put an end to such loose talk. (1)
The Electric Power Research Institute, the research arm of the US electric utility industry, released a report titled "Net Zero 2050: US Economy Wide Deep Decarbonization Scenario Analysis." This report concludes that the utility industry can't attain net zero. The study showed that clean electricity plus direct electrification and efficiency are not sufficient by themselves to achieve net zero economy wide emissions.
In other words, no amount of wind turbines, solar panels, hydropower, nuclear power, battery power, electrification of fossil fuel technologies or energy efficiency technologies will get us to net zero by 2050. The curious thing about the report is that has largely remained an EPRI secret.
The other report is from the North American Electric Reliability Corp., a government certified grid reliability and standard setting group. NERC concluded that fossil fuel plants are being removed from the grid too fast to meet continuing electricity demand and that is putting more of the country at risk of grid failure and blackouts during extreme weather. (1)
In addition, a small agency in the Energy Department admits the administration can't reach its climate change goals. The Biden administration is committed to an all of government implementation of its climate agenda. But the Energy Information Administration didn't get the memo. The EIA, part of the Energy Department issued its 'Annual Energy Outlook' report for 2023, which contains a startling graph that undermines the president's climate agenda.
The EIA finds that by 2030, US emissions will decline from their 2005 peak by 30%. But a 30% decline isn't what the president has been selling. On his first day in office, Mr. Biden issued an executive order recommitting the US to the Paris Climate Accords, which entails a pledge to reduce net US greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2030 and to zero by 2050. (2)
So there you have it. We are dangerously dismantling our electric grid while burdening it with more demand in hope of attaining the goal of "net zero by 2050", which the utility had admitted is a fantasy.
The realities of net zero are also hitting home for the general public. The threat that the project represents to livelihoods and liberties is becoming more evident by the day. Recently, the mathematician Norman Fenton tweeted an excerpt from a government funded report that set out what net zero UK might look like: no airports, no shipping, no beef and lamb to eat, and most food imports eliminated. Sounds grim, doesn't it? Lots of people thought so, and the tweet went viral, garnering over three million views. (3)
All airports except Heathrow, Belfast & Glasgow need to close by 2030. There will be no flying at all by 2050. As far as cars go, there needs to be no new petrol/diesel cars by 2030, by 2050 road use is restricted to 60% of today's level.
All the things we love like food, heating and energy will be restricted to 60% of today's level by 2050. So life will be a lot colder and hungrier unless there's a lot fewer people to share it with. (3)
The industrial death spiral grows: Europe is the king of renewables and it's also the most expensive energy in the world making it impossible for the EU to make things in needs to get to net zero. (4)
Germany, after nearly half a trillion dollars, in 20 years went from getting 84 percent of their primary energy from fossil fuels to 76 percent. Calvin Beisner asks, "Can you tell me how you'd go from 76 percent fossil fuel to zero by 2030, 2035?" (5)
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Vaclav Smil, probably the world's greatest expert on energy says: "Such emissions cuts are unrealistic. They don't take into account the vast scale of the energy needed to serve even the basic needs of the world's roughly 8 billion people--food, clothing, shelter, transportation, protection from cold and heat, and all the industry that makes those things. And they don't consider what's necessary to produce and distribute all that energy." He later explains, "People have to realize that this problem is unprecedented because of the numbers--billions of everything--and the pressure of acting rapidly as we never acted before." (5)
Developing countries, collectively by far the biggest global consumers of fossil fuels, have no intention of following suit on the west's forlorn ambition to reach net zero. For example, while the US and UK are rashly shutting down the last of their coal fired power stations, China is building hundreds of new ones at home and abroad which will be running sixty or more years from now. (6)
The developing countries pay lip service to the west's climate obsession. They play along to extract as much reparation from the self harming west as possible, or simply to win economic ascendency, Attempting unilateral net zero is pointless.
Net zero is impossible because of the world's near total dependency on fossil fuels (83% in 2020 along with 7 % difficult to expand hydro, 6% renewables and 4% unloved nuclear) and the technical unsuitability of renewables like wind and solar power. (6)
Even as the impossible dream of a wind/solar powered economy collapses everywhere it is tried, the US federal government blindly pushes forward with hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer funds to subsidize wind and solar generation and battery storage. No amount of investment in the intermittent renewables is going to eliminate the need for ongoing investment in fossil fuel production, at least within a 30-year time frame. (7)
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Jack Dini is author of Challenging Environmental Mythology. He has also written for American Council on Science and Health, Environment & Climate News, and Hawaii Reporter.