Since the day that Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas submitted his application for full state membership in the United Nations, the United States has been scurrying around to line up enough no votes or abstentions in the Security Council so that it will not be forced to use its veto to block the bid from moving forward.
With the current members of the Security Council, it appears that the U.S. is succeeding with significant help from France. There appear to be only six firm votes in favor of the Palestinian bid - Russia, China, South Africa, India, Lebanon and Brazil. When I asked U.S. Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice whether she was confident that a veto would not be necessary, she did not answer me directly but flashed a knowing smile. While the Palestinians' membership application is currently under committee review, the U.S. and its allies are anxious for a Security Council vote to proceed as soon as November 11th in the expectation that the Palestinians will not get the nine votes they need. The result will be to throw a monkey wrench into Abbas's scheme and buy some more time.
Things will get dicier next year, however, when five new non-permanent members take their seats on the Security Council. The UN General Assembly elected Azerbaijan, Guatemala, Morocco, Pakistan and Togo to serve as non-permanent members of the Security Council for two-year terms starting on January 1, 2012. The newly elected countries will replace Bosnia-Herzegovina, Brazil, Gabon, Lebanon and Nigeria.
The new roster will get the Palestinians closer to securing the nine votes they need to move their bid for full UN membership forward, which would force the United States to exercise its veto.
Bosnia-Herzegovina, which was sitting on the fence and would most likely have abstained, is being replaced by Azerbaijan, which has already indicated that it will support Palestine's UN membership bid. Gabon and Nigeria, both fence-sitters and possible abstentions, are being replaced by two firm Palestinian supporters - Morocco and Togo. Lebanon's replacement by Pakistan is a wash. The only possible vote moving away from the Palestinians' column is Guatemala, which is replacing pro-Palestinian Brazil. This means a net gain of at least two votes in favor of the Palestinians' bid. That will put more pressure on other wavering countries on the Council such as Portugal.
Here is how things may unfold during the next year. The U.S. is likely to duck having to exercise a veto this year. Meanwhile, biding their time until they make another try in the more favorable Security Council next year, the Palestinians will press ahead with picking off individual UN agencies starting with UNESCO. They are also likely to take the interim step of going directly to the General Assembly for an upgrade of their current status to a non-member observer state, which is certain to be approved and will open the door for the Palestinians to join the International Criminal Court to press cases against Israel.
Next year, armed with these credentials recognizing their statehood status, the Palestinians will re-apply for full UN membership. The U.S. will not be able to count on enough Security Council members either voting no or abstaining to avoid having to exercise its veto in order to stop the bid in its tracks. Whether the U.S. will actually veto a resolution recommending full UN membership to the General Assembly depends on when it is introduced and voted upon.
If the vote comes up for consideration in 2012 before the presidential election, President Obama will almost certainly decide to use the veto rather than risk mass defections from the Jewish-American constituency. If Obama loses the election, a Republican president can be expected to use the veto if necessary to block Palestinian membership in the UN in the absence of a final negotiated resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict between the parties.
However, if Obama wins re-election, expect to see Palestine admitted as the 194th member state on the basis of the pre-1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital. Once freed of any domestic political considerations, Obama can be expected to withdraw support from Israel if it persists in trying to preserve and defend secure borders.
