New York professor with solid track record of presidential predictions: 87% chance of Trump win

By —— Bio and Archives--October 24, 2016

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As Dan said earlier, “I want to believe.” I desperately hope that someone - anyone - who’s name isn’t Hillary Clinton ends up in the White House next year. Unfortunately, the polls haven’t been particularly cooperative of late.  I’m not saying a Trump win is impossible but, at the moment anyway, things aren’t looking great.

That said, if you’re looking for a ray of hope, there are a few out there.  Dan posted some polling data earlier that can be seen as a good sign, and there are a few people out there who still dare to predict a Trump victory.  Could Hillary really be counting her chickens before they hatch?

That’s what Professor Helmut Norpoth of New York’s Stony Brook University thinks. He’s correctly predicted the last five elections, and he claims his model shows an 87% chance that Trump wins in November.


He appeared Saturday on Fox & Friends, where he laid out his forecasting models:

That’s nice, and here’s hoping he’s right, but allow me to play devil’s advocate for a minute.

How hard was it, really, to predict the last five elections? Predicting losses for Dole, Gore, Kerry, McCain, and Romney is not exactly a miraculous streak.  Other than Bush’s first race, you could see the winners coming a mile away.

I mean, I predicted all five. I’d be willing to bet a lot of you did too. So, while I’d love to see Mr. Norpoth be proven correct, he’ll have to forgive me if I find his “remarkable track record” somewhat less than impressive


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