The end of the world as we knew it didn't come in one moment, but in increments scattered over three decades of societal evolution and unrelenting technological advance. But until some high-profile titles flamed out this year, it was still possible to deny what was increasingly obvious to many. Not any more.
Think of it: Just a few short years ago, it was common for Canadian newspapers to have market penetration approaching 70% – that is, seven in 10 households in some cities subscribed to their paper. Today? Less than 30%, and dropping like a stone.
The fallout has left the journalism community reeling: Detroit's two metropolitans have gone to three-day-a-week home delivery, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer went online-only, and the Rocky Mountain News shuttered on Feb. 26.
That's not the end of it. The latest U.S. media forecast from Fitch Ratings says that some U.S. cities could be without any daily print newspaper by 2010.
“A good newspaper, I suppose, is a nation talking to itself,” Arthur Miller said in 1961. Today, the nation talks to itself on Facebook and Twitter.
At the same time, newspapers' once-mythic prestige and influence are sinking faster than the balance sheet: Newspapers used to be a city's conscience and agenda-setter, striking fear in the heart of politicians, forcing other media to fall to heel, and holding unscrupulous operators to account.
Today, as owners frantically eject their best talent like tossing ballast off a sinking hot-air balloon, newspapers have become dull shadows of their former selves – shuffling through yesterday's headlines with all the enthusiasm of a condemned man heading to the gallows. The line between editorial and advertising copy has blurred. Their stories are seldom “news” to anyone and less-and-less trigger water-cooler chat. Most people under 30 almost never read newspapers, and – scariest of all – probably never will.
The current economics paint a gloomy picture for the old newspaper model, but not for news organizations themselves over the longer term. There is light at the end of this very dark tunnel, but only for those news units that are ready to abandon the old paradigm and adopt a zero-based business model. To do that, however, they must let go of virtually every assumption they have held about the market, their audience, and their own mandate.
Here are few things these would-be pioneers must keep in mind as they reinvent themselves for a new and very different world:
1. Today's news consumers are unlike any before them
Blame the education system, video games, TV . . . whatever you like; it doesn't matter. Younger people were not raised to read print the way preceding generations were, and their habits won't change as they age. It used to be that as couples married and bought houses, they began to worry about taxes and bought newspapers to find out what was going on. This generation is less interested in news, and, in any event, are much less likely to find the information they desire in print. You can only reach these people in the ways they are accustomed to. A daily grey book thumping on their doorstep is just not part of their world.
2. News organizations must exist independent of their platform
Newspaper organizations have talked the multi-platform talk for years; now, they must stop fooling around with half-hearted efforts and truly walk the walk. Their job is to produce content, not ink on paper. Content must be delivered on multiple platforms in a continuous 24-hour news cycle: desktop widgets, mobile, web, video and – yes, even print, where it makes economic sense. Every platform must be as good as the next; but these organizations must set aside their bias in favour of the former “core” product (print).
3. Emerging technologies can be your worst enemy – or your best friend
News companies have to stop tinkering with new technology as a defensive measure. They must instead adopt the most aggressive innovation strategy they can, and constantly stretch the boundaries of their capabilities. The news companies that are the bravest pioneers are the only ones that will survive. I'll bet some news unit is already working on an app for MIT's Sixth Sense technology.
4. A story that's been around an hour is old news
There is no bigger turnoff than picking up a printed product and seeing a headline that repeats what was on the radio, TV, the Internet, your mobile – not to mention Twittered and dissected in countless blogs – the day before. To the extent that print has a role, it must entirely act as a deeper read, backgrounding the news and providing context not found elsewhere.
5. The content must be memorable
Companies that equate volume with quality are making a fatal mistake. In an electronic world, every news organization is competing with the best in the world, because the best news services are as easily accessed as the poorest. People are so overwhelmed with information, they seek out sources that will only tell them about what really matters – or what they really care about. If you don't reward your audience with truly interesting ideas, information, video and insight, then they will have absolutely no loyalty to you. Once you lose them, it is next to impossible to win them back.
The newspaper business model is suffering through a brutal “correction” – a rapid and permanent decline in value. But, as we've seen from the recording industry or even AM radio, even obsolete technologies can linger for a long time. Take vinyl records, for example. Last year, nearly 1.9 million of them were sold in the United States – an impressive number, even if it is dwarfed by CD sales of 361 million, and iTunes' total sales of well past five billion songs.
Vinyl had its moment of truth in the early 1980s, with the introduction of digital recoding to the masses. For newspapers, 2009 is the moment of truth. Technology has rendered them the Model Ts of the information age, loveable but deeply flawed anachronisms, hopelessly unable to compete with current technology.
They still have a romantic appeal, of course, and some people will love them and buy them for years to come. But they will no longer be the wealthy mass-market instruments they once were. Instead, they will be highly specialized publications appealing to a narrow audience of traditionalists who see value where the masses no longer will.
Doug Firby worked in commercial daily newspapers for 31 years. He left the business in 2008.
- Doug Firby, Columnist, Troy Media Corporation
From time to time, curious friends – mostly anxious journalists – ask me when I think newspapers as we know them will cease to exist.
My answer is simple: They already have.
