It's pretty clear that Barack Obama has no stomach whatsoever for a confrontation with Russia. Indeed, that's been clear to Vladimir Putin for a very long time, which is why he planned the invasion of Crimea with no fear whatsoever of any significant consequences.
And sure enough, while Russia goes full-steam on the annexation of the erstwhile Ukrainian peninulsa, Obama confirms that he will do nothing more than immpose nominal, largely meaningless "sanctions" that target only 11 relatively insignificant individuals:
Mr. Obama had promised "consequences" if Mr. Putin followed through with the Crimean referendum, so we doubt even the Russian President thought the West's actions would be this weak. Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny tweeted from Moscow that the sanctions list was "of course, funny." He added that "Obama only delighted all our crooks and encouraged them."
That turned out to be literally true when one of the Russians on Mr. Obama's list, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, tweeted, "It seems to me that some kind of joker wrote the U.S. president's order 😊" LOL.
The U.S. list included a mere seven Russians and four Ukrainians who the President cited for having threatened "Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity." The list included only two Russians of note: Mr. Putin's political fixer Vladislav Surkov, and Sergei Glazyev, a nationalist who handles the Kiev portfolio at the Kremlin. The other five are lawmakers with little influence.
The most notable names were those not on the list. Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu, Mr. Putin's chief of staff Sergei Ivanov and Alexander Bortnikov, who runs the FSB (formerly the KGB), belong to the circle of hard-liners on the Russian national security council, where the decisions on Ukraine are taken. Mr. Shoygu's department has deployed some 20,000 men to Crimea. Mr. Bortnikov's charges are running special operations in eastern Ukraine to whip up separatist demonstrators.
Mr. Putin's moneymen are also absent. Alexei Miller is a close ally who runs Gazprom and can squeeze Ukraine on gas supplies and prices. Igor Sechin, another crony, runs the oil giant Rosneft. Gennady Timchenko became an overnight energy billionaire after Mr. Putin took over the Kremlin. These men have assets and business in Europe and America, and limiting their ability to invest or travel would bring financial pain to the Putin inner circle.
Why even go through the motions if you're not going to impose sanctions that actually matter? Why even bother to lift a finger if you're going to spare everyone who is in a position to make a difference?
The answer goes to the essence of the Obama presidency. There is not very much that Obama does well, but one thing he thinks he does well is talk about himself and the action he's taking. So when he announces to the world that Putin will face consequences, Obama is really convinced that the declaration matters. It may only matter in the realm of domestic politics, but then, that is all that matters to Obama. What does he care if Crimea is Ukrainian or Russian? It's far away. No one there can vote for him or sign up for ObamaCare. Having to deal with crap like this imposes on the time he could be spending talking to Zack Galifianakis or Ryan Seacrest, or attending fundraisers.
There is also this: When it comes to international affairs, Obama has no idea what to do, and on some level he must understand this. Just as he governs domestically by rhetorical B.S., he can speak in platitudes but he really doesn't know if any of what he says will get the results desired. So weak, ineffectual sanctions are really just a logical extension of Obama's domestic governing approach. Hey, we imposed sanctions. What do you want us to do? Start a war? Crimea is Russian now. Get over it. I'm trying to transform America.
That's why Obama wouldn't even consider Ukraine's request that we provide them with arms to defend against the Russian invasion. The liberal instinct is to think that helping a victim of aggression is warmongering, but in addition to that, to commit oneself that much is too much of a hassle for a president who thinks governing amounts to little more than altering history by the force of his compelling personality.
The comments about this from Bret Baier's panel are interesting in two ways. They start with A.B. Stoddard of The Hill offering a classic Washington insider type comment: "Vladimir Putin had a great day." But when the Hammer weighs in, we get down to what's really going on here:
