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Alarming sea level rise predictions abound

Oceans Not Warming So Fast After All


By —— Bio and Archives--November 23, 2018

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Oceans Not Warming So Fast After All
You may have recently read or hard that the oceans were warming much faster than originally thought thus hastening our impending global warming. I certainly read such information in the San Francisco Chronicle.

Well, surprise, surprise, it is not happening after all.

A study that claimed to find 60 percent more warming in the oceans had some math errors. Scientists behind the headline-grabbing climate study admitted they ‘really muffed’ their paper. 1

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The researchers, to their credit, issued a major correction to the study.2

The paper, published in the scientific journal Nature, suggested ocean temperatures have risen roughly 60 percent higher than estimated by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 3 But, after errors in the authors’ methodology were identified, they realized their findings were roughly in line with those of the IPCC after all.

The researchers’ alarming findings were uncritically reported by numerous mainstream-media outlets including the BBC, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Scientific American and the previously mentioned San Francisco Chronicle among others. 4

Nicholas Lewis, a mathematician and critic of the consensus on man-made climate change is the person who quickly identified the errors.

“The findings of the paper were peer-reviewed and published in the world’s premier scientific journal and were given wide coverage in the English-speaking media,” Lewis wrote. “Despite this, a quick review of the first page of the paper was sufficient to raise doubt as to the accuracy of its results.” Co-author Ralph Keeling, a climate scientist at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, took full blame and thanked Lewis for alerting him to the mistake. “We’re grateful to have it pointed out quickly so that we could weigh in on the precise amount of warming that’s going on in the ocean,” Keeling said. “We really muffed the error margins.” A correction has been submitted to the journal Nature. 1

Lewis adds, “Because of the wide dissemination of the paper’s results, it is extremely important that these errors are acknowledged by the authors without delay and then corrected. Of course, it is also very important that the media outlets that unquestioningly trumpeted the paper’s findings now correct the record too. But perhaps that is too much to hope for.” 5

The ocean warming scare is something alarmists needed for 2018, since as Kenneth Richard notes, “The year 2018 could mark the beginning of the end of climate change alarmist reporting. Projections of catastrophic melting of the ice sheets and sea level rise swallowing up the Earth’s coasts are increasingly undermined by observations.” 6

Alarming sea level rise predictions abound. Several meters of sea level rise due to catastrophic melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been predicted based on anthropogenic CO2 scenarios.

For example, claims that we shall experience 260 centimeters (2.6 meters) of global sea level rise by 2100 unless we dramatically curtail our fossil fuel consumption have been published in one case. 7 In another example, some of these same authors suggest seas will rise by 17.5 meters in the next 180 years. 8

Looking at these examples Kenneth Richard says, “Despite the hackneyed practice of reporting ‘staggering’ ice sheet melt for both Greenland and Antarctica in recent decades, the two polar ice sheets combined add just 1.5 centimeters (reality check: one centimeter = 0.01 meter) to sea level rise between 1958 and 2014.” 6

References

  1. Marc Morano, “Forget ‘peer review’—‘skeptic review’ dismantles study: climate skeptic uncovers scientific error, upends major media hyped ocean warming study,” Climate Depot, November 14, 2018
  2. Jack Crowe, “Climate scientists discover error in major ocean warming study,” nationalreview.com, November 14, 2018
  3. L. Resplandy et al., “Quantification of ocean heat uptake from change in atmospheric oxygen and CO2 composition,” Nature 563, 105, 2018
  4. Anthony Watts, “Uncritical news media gave blanket coverage to flawed climate paper,” wattsupwiththat.com, Novembver 7, 2018
  5. Nicholas Lewis, “A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper,” November 6, 2018
  6. Kenneth Richard, “Climate alarmism dies in 2018 as modern ice melt, sea level rise has no net impact on world’s coasts,” notrickszone.com, November 15, 2018
  7. Andra J. Garner et al., “Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE,” PNAS, November 7, 2017, 114(45), 11861-11866
  8. Nils-Axel Morner et al., “Estimating future sea level changes, assessing coastal hazards, avoiding misguiding exaggerations, and recommending present coastal management,” IRJES, 7, Issue 4, Pages 19-25, April 2018

 


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Jack Dini -- Bio and Archives | Comments

Jack Dini is author of Challenging Environmental Mythology.  He has also written for American Council on Science and Health, Environment & Climate News, and Hawaii Reporter.


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