Just as there are long trends in financial and commodity markets there have been long trends in political markets. And both markets can change. In the latter, even terminology can change. At one time, a liberal was for limited government and individual liberty and responsibility. Conservatives opposed this. And over a hundred years this has changed such that “conservatives” stand for limited government and “liberals” are for maximum government. How was the corruption of the latter accomplished? Sadly, one can’t explain why, but it was part of a rare global experiment in authoritarian government. With this, the Liberals were flexible and got on the bandwagon.
Totalitarian system: “That which is not compulsory is prohibited”
In the quest for power, Liberals got excited about any political fad so long as it enhanced centralizing forces. Liberals were united on the trip. Some Progressive Conservatives, feeling left out, said “me too” to attempts to nationalize the oil industry and to the incredible intrusion of “Price and Wage Controls”. These were called “Pink Tories”, or even “Red Tories”. Opposition to big government became seriously divided, chronically losing elections. However, with the recent spread of popular uprisings, a major reform of intrusive government is underway. In which case, the Left could become the divided side and “conservatives” become united in urging reform. Chronically winning?
It has happened, big time, before and it is worthwhile to look to terms. The best description of a totalitarian system is by the Physicist Murray Gell-Mann: “That which is not compulsory is prohibited.” This covers every intrusion under any inspiring banner from International Socialism to National Socialism, and in North America, from Liberal to Democrat, from jack-boots, hammers and sickles to Gucci loafers and limousines. Whatever. The description fits any ambitious government scheming. The danger to society arrives when the checks and balances upon government are bypassed by the politicization of all government agencies and the media to a one-party system. Any opposition is violently shouted down. Regrettably, in Canada political correctness has become dominant and brooks no criticism of its lust for control.
But fortunately, the times they are changing.
Socialists are driven to set the temperature of the nearest planet at the “perfect” temperature
With only three great experiments in authoritarian government, since the one that collapsed Rome, society’s default condition has been minimal and affordable government. Otherwise ordinary people would move elsewhere and they left Rome. On the next great intrusion, bureaucrats corrupted the Church into a murderous police state, that by the early 1600s prompted a great reformation. It is best followed in England. Too much in-your-face and in-your-wallet government has inspired popular uprisings since Ancient Egypt. More than 4,000 years ago, ordinary people took on the governing classes, forcing dynastic changes. In 1989, ordinary folk took down the Berlin Wall and official Communism.
Chances are, that that the current set of popular uprisings seen in a growing number of countries could turn into another great reformation. How England got rid of its last absolutist king is fascinating. Called the “Glorious Revolution” of 1688, it was conducted by Protestant businessmen in London, supported by ordinary people most everywhere. The Wiki on the “Glorious” is accurate. The authoritarian king was forced out and sought solace in totalitarian France.
North America was initially settled by ordinary, but courageous, people escaping from authoritarian regimes. But with the experiment that has been imposed since around 1900, there is now nowhere to go to escape from control freaks, who have always employed compelling slogans. Early in the 1900s, International Socialists were out to create the “Perfect Man”. Then, National Socialists were determined to create the “perfect” race and land space. Now, all kinds of socialists are driven to set the temperature of the nearest planet at the “perfect” temperature. At plus, or minus half a degree Kelvin, no less.
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Government has become “too much”
In the words of the Canadian writer, W.O. Mitchell, it is “enough to give a gopher heartburn”.
And with folk having nowhere to run and hide from control freaks it is time for a popular uprising. Indeed, some 6 provincial elections in the past year have voted out old intrusive governments, and it looks like many voters are intending to drain the swamps of Ottawa come this October.
Cities have always been the focal point of business. Big or small, but in Canada, England, and America this is still the case, however the problem has been that urban socialists have also congregated in the big cities, leaving the middle as “fly-over-and-ignore-but-tax” regions.
That government has become “too much” and needs to be reformed is in the air. Also it is becoming measurable.
On July 13th, Gallup published a fascinating report, headlined by “Mentions of Immigration as Top Problem Surpass Record High”.
On a wide-spread survey of Americans, Gallup determined that the issue of greatest concern was “Immigration” at 27%. And the number has been growing steeply. Gallup notes that the “27%” has only been topped on 5 issues since 2001.
Next was “The Government” at 23%. These indicate that the urge for reform is wide and deep, which is what “conservatives” will win elections on in North America.
And the numbers on issues that the Left seem compelled to run on rank as follows:
“Race Relations” at 7%, and “Environment/Pollution/Climate” ranks very low at 4%.
Moreover, on July 22nd, Yahoo! Headlined a Pew Study with “US Mistrust On The Rise, With Government Seen As Worst”.
Political market forces could be in the early stages of another great reformation and recent statements indicate that the Left is determined to run on passionate but old issues. Some on the Left may wish to be practical and say “me too” to the newly winning trend. Others, more radical, will stay with the cause.
This will divide the Left where the most radical are touting “Democracy is the planet’s enemy”. So, the most energetic Democrats are compelled to campaign on radical socialism, the “Climate Emergency” and “Hate Trump”.
Oddly enough, the Liberal Party of Canada seems compelled to run on the same platform, including Trump, that by this October’s general election could divide—gasp--the traditional unity of Liberals.
A “conservative” win would advance the huge global trend change to another great reformation.
Bob Hoye (BobHoye.com) has been researching investments for decades, which eventually included the history of financial and political markets. He considers now to be the most fascinating time for both since the Great Reformation of the 1600s. Bob casts a caustic eye on all promotions and, having a degree in geophysics, is severely critical of the audacity that a committee can “manage” not just the economy, but also the temperature of the nearest planet. He has had articles published in major financial journals and, as a speaker, has amused assemblies in a number of cities, from London to Zurich to Tokyo.
Just as there are long trends in financial and commodity markets there have been long trends in political markets. And both markets can change. In the latter, even terminology can change. At one time, a liberal was for limited government and individual liberty and responsibility. Conservatives opposed this. And over a hundred years this has changed such that “conservatives” stand for limited government and “liberals” are for maximum government. How was the corruption of the latter accomplished? Sadly, one can’t explain why, but it was part of a rare global experiment in authoritarian government. With this, the Liberals were flexible and got on the bandwagon.
