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The momentum is absolutely in Trump's favor

Polls: Tied in Colorado, Trump up in Virginia?

By Robert Laurie ——--November 3, 2016

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No one is arguing that Hillary Clinton is cruising to an easy win. At least, they're not arguing that anymore. Panic has descended upon her media bootlickers and whatever hopes she had of a relaxing Election Day have come crashing down with her poll numbers. Trump still has a tough slog ahead of him, but his defeat is nowhere near the certainty it seemed to be just two weeks ago.
Two new polls, in Virginia in Colorado, should offer a ray of hope to anyone looking for a Trump victory. First Colorado, via CNN:
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied for Colorado, according to a new poll in the battleground state. A new poll released Wednesday from the University of Denver/Ciruli Associates shows Clinton and Trump tied at 39% each in a four-way match up with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 5% and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 4%, among likely voters. About 14% responded "none/other/don't know or it depends," which could be depressing the numbers behind each candidate. Colorado is a state that's been long thought to swing for Clinton, and a key part of her road to 270 electoral votes, and her campaign only recently re-launched television advertising there. Trump, however, has continued to campaign there.
That advertising re-launch could be a signal that Hillary has some internal polling that indicates things in Ski Country are slipping. At the very least, it's a sign that the state is not "in the bag" for Clinton. Next up, the Hampton University poll of Virginia - a state long thought to be well beyond Trump's grasp.
The decision recently made by the FBI to reopen the email investigation is having a clear impact on likely voters in Virginia and their views of the presidential candidates. Hillary Clinton trails for the first time in this election cycle in the CPP polls. When respondents were asked if the election were held today, 44% chose Trump and 41% selected the Clinton. However, a great number of likely Virginia voters remain undecided (15%), a number that is down 5% since the last HU Center for Public Policy poll just three weeks ago. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.57%. It must be noted that this poll began on the evening of Wednesday, October 26th and in the two days of data collection before the FBI email news story, the majority of interviews were completed. In that time, the data reflected a slim lead for Clinton over Trump (43% to 42% with 15% undecided).

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Now, grain of salt time. The momentum is absolutely in Trump's favor and he's in a much better position than he was just ten days ago, but both polls seem a bit ...optimistic. In particular, the VA numbers seem a bit pie in the sky. In Hampton U's previous poll, one month ago, Hillary was up a whopping 12 points. A fifteen-point swing in a few weeks is a big pill to swallow, particularly when the poll has such a substantial margin of error. That said, even without the Hampton data, the RCP average for VA has plummeted from Hillary +10.8 to Hillary plus 4.7. So, while big moves are not impossible, I'd recommend healthy skepticism. VA is likely still in the Hillary column by at least a couple of points. Colorado is probably a closer reflection of reality, but I'd be willing to bet that Hillary is still up by one. The question is: Are these polls simply outliers, or are they the first in what will be a series of similar results? If it's the latter, they're early indicators that the trends we've been watching will lead Hillary to a very ugly Tuesday night. ...And if that Hampton poll is actually correct, it's already over.
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Robert Laurie——

Robert Laurie’s column is distributed by HermanCain.com, which can be found at HermanCain.com

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