Problems for alarmists

Regions Around the World Failing to Cooperate With Global Warming Alarmism

By Jack Dini ——Bio and Archives--November 28, 2023

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A number of regions of the world fail to cooperate with global warming instructions.

Antarctica: The continent of Antarctica is a difficult hunting ground for climate apocalypse fanatics since there has been barely any overall warming over the last 70 years. The exception is West Antarctica where there has been some local climate variation, possibly helped by significant geothermal activity. Of course, this is enough for a scare or two while clearly not mentioning the geothermal activity.⁽¹⁾

Recent research indicates West Antarctica's mean annual surface temperature cooled by more than -1.8 C (0.93 C per decade) from 1999-2018. In spring, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) rate reached -1.84 C per decade.⁽²⁾

Significant 21st century cooling in the Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, and nearly all of Antarctic implies substantial uncertainties in future temperature projections of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6) models. ⁽³⁾

Not only has the WAIS undergone significant cooling in the last two decades, most of the continent has also cooled by more than 1 C. Of 28 CMIP6 models, none captured a cooling trend, especially of this amplitude, for this region. This modeling failure implies substantial uncertainties in future temperature projections of CMIP6 models.

The 1999-2018 mean annual temperature cooling of the Antarctic continent and nearly half of the Southern Hemisphere SSTs (sea surface temperatures) do not support the claims that surface warming is driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases. ⁽⁴⁾

From ~ 21,000 to 19,500 years ago, when CO2 was thought to have been at its lowest point in the Quaternary ice age (~180 ppm), the sea ice surrounding East and West Antarctica completed 50% of its eventual deglaciation-era decline. The timing of this early sea ice recession was at least 2,000 years before the Antarctic climate began warming (by a magnitude of an eventual 8 degrees C, and before CO2 began rising (by 80 ppm) over the course of the -5,800 year deglaciation phase (-17,500 to 11,700 years ago). ⁽⁵⁾

The millennial scale lag not only suggests CO2 was not a contributing factor in Antarctic sea ice retreat, but that the sea ice retreat may have been the factor sequentially instigating Antarctic warming and CO2 rise. ⁽²⁾

Over at the Greenland ice sheet, the latest information from the Danish Polar Portal shows winter ice growing thick faster than the 1981-2010 average. (1)

Arctic

Arctic summer minimum sea ice extent refuses to drop further, surprising and frustrating the alarmist media.⁽⁶⁾

If the hottest year ever can't precipitate ice free conditions in September, what's it going to take asks Susan Crockford. Active sea ice failed to nose dive this year, undoubtedly disappointing experts who have been anticipating a death spiral decline for ages. Arctic sea ice hit its seasonal low sometime around mid-September this year. ⁽⁷⁾

This means we have now had 17 years of a near-zero trend for September sea ice. This surely bursts a huge hole in the prevailing concept that more atmospheric CO2 causes less summer sea ice. Measures in metric tons of CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel rose from 31.1 billion in 2007 to 37.1 billion in 2021 (last year of data), again with no corresponding decline in summer sea ice.

John Happs provides a multitude of predictions about Arctic sea ice and how it will (or should have already) disappear. Then he asks, how have all those expert predictions worked out now the summer ice melt season in the Arctic has ended? Data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reveals the trend, showing the sea ice extent in the Arctic stands at a 12-year high.⁽⁸⁾

Climate alarmists ignore the fact (perhaps they don't know) that it is not uncommon for the Arctic to be ice free, only to bounce back.

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Elsewhere

New research finds the sea ice extent has undergone an overall increasing trend from 2005-2021 in the Sea of Japan, Yellow Sea, and Bohai Sea. ⁽⁹⁾

This region, the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan, was warmer than today in the1700s and 1800s. ⁽¹⁰⁾

Paleoclimate studies continue to undermine claims of unprecedented global warming in the modern era. ⁽¹¹⁾

A new temperature reconstruction for Brazil reveals there has been no net modern warming since the 1400s. ⁽¹²⁾

Another new temperature reconstruction indicates there has been no net modern warming in Central China since the 1400s. ⁽¹³⁾

The Romanian National Meteorological administration indicates the Danube region cooled from 1961-2013. (14)

References

1. Chris Morrison," West Antarctic temperature falls 2 C in 20 years," dailysceptic.org, November 17, 2023

2. Kenneth Richard, 'New study finds most of Antarctic has cooled by over 1 degree C. West Antarctic cooled 1.8 degrees C," wattsupwiththat.com, November 6, 2023

3. Xueying Zhang et al., "Significant West Antarctic cooling in the past two decades driven by tropical Pacific forcing," AMS Journals, June 26, 2023

4. Kenneth Richard, 'New study finds most of Antarctic has cooled by over 1 degree C. West Antarctic cooled 1.8 degrees C," wattsupwiththat.com, November 6, 2023

5. Henrik Sadatzki et al., "Early sea ice decline off East Antarctica at the last glacial-interglacial climate transition," Science Advances, October 12, 2023

6. P. Gosselin, "Arctic refuses to melt. German scientists blame unusual weather phenomenon," notrickszone.com, September 26, 2023

7. Susan Crockford, "17 years of near-zero trend in September sea ice demolishes claim that more CO2 means less sea ice," wattsupwiththat.com, September 2023

8. John Happs, "Arctic ice alarmists display either ignorance or their deceptive tendencies," saltbushclub.com, November 1, 2023

9. Lei Zhang et al., "Spatiotemporal patterns of sea ice cover in the marginal seas of East Asia," Atmosphere, January 19, 2023

10. Yancheng Zhang et al., "Persistent intensification of the Kuroshio Current during late Holocene cool intervals," Earth and Planetary Letters, Volume 506 January 15, 2019

11. Kenneth Richard, "New reconstructions from Brazil, China and Europe indicate no new warming in recent centuries," notrickszone.com, October 26, 2023

12. Daniel Oliveira Silva Muraja et al, "Exploring the centennial scale climate history of Southern Brazil with Ocotea porosa Barroso tree rings," Atmosphere, September 15, 2023

13. Weipeng Yue et al., "Little Ice Age cooling in the Western Hengduan Mountains, China: a 600 year warm season temperature reconstruction from tree rings," Climate Dynamics, 2023

14. Nagavciuc Viorica et al., "The first tree ring reconstruction of stream flow variability over the last ~250 years in the Lower Danube," Journal of Hydrology, February 2023