Reuters/Ipsos poll: Florida, Ohio, Arizona once again toss-ups

Let's review the week that Donald Trump had, shall we? First, he is roundly declared to have lost the first debate. Then he is attacked for days by Hillary's media dobermans over the allegation that 20 years ago he called a woman fat, only to make matters worse by launching a tweetstorm against her at 5 in the morning. Then, the media comes forth with the allegation (yeah, I know) that he legally minimized his tax liability. As you might expect, the polls throughout this week do not trend in Trump's direction, and everyone starts wondering if his campaign is imploding.

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So on Monday, Reuters/Ipsos comes out with a new poll - one that you might expect to show yet more momentum for Hillary. Surprise:

The U.S. presidential race tightened in a number of traditional battleground states, though Democrat Hillary Clinton remained the favorite to win the White House, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project poll released on Monday. The project, which uses a national online opinion poll of more than 15,000 people, showed that, as of Thursday, Clinton and Republican rival Donald Trump were running nearly even in support in Florida and Ohio: states where she had held an advantage. Arizona, where Trump had held an advantage, was also considered a toss-up. Meanwhile, Maine, Oregon and Pennsylvania were considered states that Clinton would likely win. They had previously been considered toss-ups. Overall, the project showed that Clinton continued to hold the advantage over Trump in the Electoral College, the body that ultimately picks the president.

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After a week of so much negative Trump coverage that the polls would once again be tightening to Trump's advantage - only six days after the debate

Now this doesn't mean that Trump is where he was before the debate. The polls did turn considerably in her direction during the past week and all that she appears to have gained did not go back to Trump's side of the ledger with one poll. But it's nonetheless a stunner that after a week of so much negative Trump coverage that the polls would once again be tightening to Trump's advantage - only six days after the debate. There could be several ways of understanding this poll. A simple explanation is that it could be an outlier. Another is that some of the polling might have been done before the full effect of the Machado fiasco was fully felt. We'll have to see if subsequent polls confirm any kind of trend back in Trump's direction. But I think the most likely explanation is this: Hillary can't sustain any serious positive momentum because no one really wants Hillary to be president. The only people voicing their support for Hillary are a) die-hard partisan Democrats who would vote for anyone with a D after their name; b) people who have bought the claims that Trump is a racist, sexist maniac. No one actually finds Hillary Clinton appealing. No one is exciting about the prospect of her being president. No one trusts a word she says or believes for one second that she's in public life for any reason apart from her own enrichment and ego gratification.

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No matter how many problems your opponent has, it's awfully hard to win when you're as unappealing as Hillary Clinton

So her poll numbers might tick up for a spell when the media are landing blows against Trump on her behalf. But when people are sitting back and simply assessing the relative merits of the two candidates - without any particular firestorm tilting the scales one way or the other - she'll always fall back into a pretty close race with Trump because there just aren't that many people who really want her. Now that doesn't mean she can't win. Obviously Trump has his own problems appealing to people. But Hillary supporters often ask the question: Why can't she put Trump away? The answer is that it has nothing whatsoever to do with Trump. She can't put Trump away because she's Hillary. She's an awful candidate and a terrible person, and no one likes her or wants her. And no one really wants to vote for her. That's why she can't put him away, and it could still be the reason she doesn't win. No matter how many problems your opponent has, it's awfully hard to win when you're as unappealing as Hillary Clinton.

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