The United Nations and Turkey brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative last summer between Ukraine and Russia, which has allowed grain shipments to leave Ukraine's ports and pass through a "humanitarian" corridor safely. Russia has now jeopardized this life-saving arrangement by suspending its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative for an "indefinite period."
The Black Sea Grain Initiative freed up Ukrainian agricultural products for export that had been blocked from reaching global markets following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The increased exports brought more stability to the global food market, which helped to lower prices. Wheat purchased by the World Food Program was able to reach vulnerable people in food insecure areas. In short, this Initiative has helped to relieve the food crisis, which had been exacerbated by Russia's war in Ukraine. Now all that progress is at risk because Russia once again is trying to use vitally needed food as a weapon of war.
Russia charged that Ukraine had launched a "terrorist" drone attack on the Russian fleet at the Black Sea port of Sevastopol
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres expressed his deep concern about the ongoing situation regarding the Black Sea Grain Initiative. His office issued a statement announcing that the Secretary General "continues to engage in intense contacts aiming at the end of the Russian suspension of its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative." To address Russia's concerns about difficulties it has experienced in exporting their own agricultural products, including fertilizer, the statement added that the Secretary General's engagement also aims at "removing the remaining obstacles to the exports of Russian food and fertilizer."
To his credit, Secretary General Guterres played a key role behind the scenes in facilitating the negotiation of the original deal and is trying now to preserve it. But the UN cannot stop rogue regimes like Russia and Iran from blatantly violating their commitments and obligations under international law, even though President Joe Biden seems to think otherwise. In commenting on Russia's suspension of its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, President Biden said, "The UN negotiated that deal, and that should be the end of it." Obviously, it is not the end of it.
In trying to rationalize its unconscionable Initiative suspension decision, Russia charged that Ukraine had launched a "terrorist" drone attack on the Russian fleet at the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in Crimea on October 29th. Russia also charged that operatives from the United Kingdom participated in the attack.
"It is unfair to condemn Russia in suspending the implementation of the deal," said Russia's ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov. "This happened because of the reckless actions by the Ukrainian authorities."
The Russian Defense Ministry issued the following statement on October 31st: "The movement of ships along the security corridor is unacceptable, since the Ukrainian leadership and the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine use it to conduct military operations against the Russian Federation."
Over one hundred ships were blocked from seeking permission to enter Ukrainian ports
The immediate result of Russia's action was that over one hundred ships were blocked from seeking permission to enter Ukrainian ports to load grain during this past weekend. Conditions have improved somewhat since then, allowing some vessels to leave Ukrainian ports with agricultural products. But even if that trend continues, as long as Russia remains disengaged from the Black Sea Grain Initiative process there will be uncertainties that undermine its prospect for success.
Such uncertainties are reflected in increased food prices on the global market since Russia's announcement. Moreover, insurers and commercial shippers may not want to risk further shipping on Black Sea routes without ironclad assurances that Russia is fully back on board with the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Insurers have told UN officials that their premiums may leap by a quarter or a half for shipping in the Black Sea. And that is assuming they do not stop insuring this shipping altogether.
Russian propagandists have tried to portray their country as the innocent victim of Ukrainian aggression, "genocide" of the Russian-speaking population in parts of Ukraine, and Western expansionism. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The Russian regime, led by President Vladimir Putin, invaded Ukraine's sovereign territory last February. Since then, the invaders have fired missiles, artillery, and drones at civilian population centers in a deliberate attempt to terrorize the Ukrainian people into submission and to revenge Russian losses on the battlefield. The barrage against critical civilian infrastructure and other civilian targets intensified on October 31st, leaving many residents of Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, without power and forcing them to scramble for vital water supplies.
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Ukraine is turning the tide on the battlefield
"Instead of fighting on the battlefield, Russia fights civilians," Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said. "Don't justify these attacks by calling them a ‘response.' Russia does this because it still has the missiles and the will to kill Ukrainians."
President Putin and his henchmen have committed numerous war crimes against the Ukrainian people. However, to the Russian dictator's dismay, the Ukrainians have stood up to Putin's war crimes, even as he resorts to killing and maiming more innocent civilians and destroying their energy facilities as the bitter winter sets in.
Using long range and precision guided artillery, rockets and drones that have surpassed some of Russia's own outdated weapons, Ukraine is turning the tide on the battlefield. It has been able to launch more devastating attacks deep into areas of Ukraine occupied by the Russian invaders. Even Russian ships in port in Russian-occupied Crimea are not beyond the reach of Ukraine's weapons.
Vladimir Putin is a megalomaniac with grand territorial ambitions who cannot accept the prospect of a military defeat. His power, and perhaps his life, hang in the balance if losses on the battlefield reach a critical tipping point. Sheer desperation may lead Putin to behave in a way that threatens the prospect of thousands of freeze-related deaths this winter in Ukraine, worsening global hunger, and perhaps even a nuclear conflagration. As the world learned from failed efforts to appease Adolf Hitler, appeasement of a tyrant only leads to more aggression.
