It is quite instructive to read Russia's Bolshevik paper of record Pravda. Had Condoleezza Rice read Pravda rather than CIA reports she would have known that Russia was planning to invade our ally Georgia in 2008, for example. Pravda telegraphed that invasion, and anyone who read the former Communist Party organ would have knows SOMETHING was up, but Condi didn't "waste her time" on the tabloid commie rag (there are numerous stories about UFOs and other tabloid trash mixed in with some solid reporting) so she was caught flat-footed, giving us that deer-in-the-headlights stare when asked what happened and why the U.S. didn't take action. Obviously some folks at Langley didn't believe the Russians were serious.
Well, we may be seeing the next victim of the oily bear;
Pravda's latest is entitled "Russia to become involved in another war on post-Soviet space?"
Azerbaijan is in the crosshairs this time.
Azerbaijan is a loyal ally to the Coalition of the Willing. The Azeris have provided invaluable aid to the U.S. in Afghanistan, entering the war in 2001 and providing not just passive assistance but troops. They have allowed the coalition to use their territory, and provided invaluable intelligence aid.
But there's more; Azerbaijan has proven natural gas resources. According to the
U.S. Energy Information Administration:
"In 2008, Azerbaijan produced 572 billion cubic feet of natural gas and consumed 376 billion cubic feet. Almost all of Azerbaijan's natural gas is produced from offshore fields. The country's leading natural gas fields are the ACG and the new Shah Deniz natural gas and condensate field, which started up in 2007. The Guneshli field, part of the ACG oil and gas fields system, provides associated gas to the Azerigaz system for domestic use via an undersea gas pipeline to Sangachal Terminal at Baku. The Sangachal Terminal, located south of Baku, is one of the world's largest integrated oil and gas processing terminals. It receives, stores, and processes both crude oil and natural gas from the ACG fields and from Shah Deniz, then ships these hydrocarbons through the BTU and SCP pipelines for export."
Azerbaijan is a net exporter of both gas and oil
So Azerbaijan is a net exporter of both gas and oil - and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline (which runs parallel to the Baku--Tbilisi--Ceyhan oil pipeline ) runs through that nation. It is a critical conduit; in August of 2010 oil from Turkmenistan began flowing through the BTC pipe, bypassing Russia and Iran.
The first thing the Russians did when they invaded Georgia in 2008 was launch
an airstrike on the BTC pipeline.
Vladimir Putin has made it clear that it is the Russian ambition to dominate energy. They have boycotted natural gas to Ukraine in the past, and the Russian giant Gazprom took over the natural gas industry in Armenia in 2006 in return for a guarantee to provide what Armenia needs. Russia hopes to strong-arm Europe by controlling energy flowing into the continent.
According to the Center for Foreign Policy Studies, the Russians held the
following shares on the European gas market in 2006:
Russian share of total gas consumption
30-39% Germany
20-25% France
62% Poland
25-28% Italy
97% Bulgaria
79% Czech Republic
BTE and BTC pipelines were consciously designed to bypass Russia and her ally Iran so that Russia could not strangle Europe
The BTE and BTC pipelines were consciously designed to bypass Russia and her ally Iran so that Russia could not strangle Europe. Without those pipelines the Russians can force the former Soviet satellite states back into her orb, and restructure the entire post-Cold War West.
Christian Armenia and Islamic Azerbaijan are old enemies, and the Nagorno region a traditional sore spot - the two countries fought a war over the territory between 1918 and 1920. British occupation of the Caucasus region following the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire ushered in an era of relative peace, and Soviet domination held the vitriol at bay through much of the 20th century.
At the end of the 1980's, with the decline of the U.S.S.R., ethnic Armenians living in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh attempted to secede from Azerbaijan and establish an independent Republic. Full scale war broke out in 1992, drawing in the Armenian Republic. By 1993 Armenia had captured territory outside of the Armenian enclave, and the 1994 armistice ended with Armenia in control of the Armenian enclave plus 9% of Azeri territory. Azerbaijan wants that territory back.
Post-Soviet Russia briefly administered the Nagoro-Karabakh, but the region had become engulfed in a blood feud. While this war is between ethnic groups who practice Islam and Christianity, the religious aspects aren't nearly as important as the desire to inhabit - and control -the territories in question. The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic unofficially controls the region, but that Republic is not recognized. The issue is much in dispute.
There have been accusations of atrocities on all sides (and atrocities on all sides). This situation bears a striking similarity to the Georgian conflict which precipitated Russian invasion of the U.S. ally.
Direct Russian intervention is far from certain, but it would give the Russians considerable tactical advantages in many ways. First, it would show the world that they can move into their old dominion with impunity, and that the United States cannot and will not do anything about it. The U.S. failure to act in the invasion of Georgia - a staunch U.S. ally in the Caucasus - planted the seeds of fear in the former Soviet republics, and an invasion of Azerbaijan would make it quite plain to any would-be American allies that their protector is a paper tiger. It would make intervention in Iran more difficult, with territory bordering northern Iran closed. (The Iranians expect military action against them
from Azerbaijan and
not without justification.) In fact, it would mean Russian forces could easily strike at American ground troops should they be deployed. The Russians could threaten the entire region if the U.S. should act to stop Iranian nuclear development. It would make the prosecution of the war in Afghanistan more difficult; the Russians dream of America sinking in that pit, just as did the Soviet Union. The U.S. losing access to air bases in Azerbaijan would allow Russia to control the oil and gas of the region, and close the pipelines to Europe, placing the E.U. and the former Soviet republics under the Russian energy thumb. It would deprive the U.S. of a critical ally, the last notable ally in the Caucasus region. With the Islamization of Turkey, Azerbaijan now holds the door to Iraq and Iran.
What will the U.S. do should Russia invade? Likely very little; Barack Hussein Obama may hold sympathies for the Azeris since they are Moslem, but he holds greater contempt for U.S. power, and will likely make a condemnation similar to his remarks about the Russian invasion of Georgia when he was a candidate for President ("this is not in the Olympic ideal" as the invasion occurred during the Olympics). The frustration of American power will not fail to lighten his mood, but he will make some peevish statements and offer token disapproval, perhaps embargoing Russian electronics gear or a complete ban on Russian sugar cane and rum. Nothing much will happen, in all likelihood.
But the chill wind will blow throughout the world, with nations moving toward Russia, toward China, away from a cowardly and unfaithful America. Key allies will rethink their commitments. Old allies may be less helpful. Couple that with a new
START nuclear disarmament treaty that Obama has been pushing (reducing a nuclear threat to Russia, freeing the bear's conventional forces) and America's allies will be likely to run for the tall grass.
What should the U.S. do? Azerbaijan has considered
joining NATO, and the U.S. should offer to fast-track membership - and make it plain to Putin that they WILL put AZ in should they launch an attack. They should try to involve the worthless U.N., if for no other reason than to expose that corrupt body for the fraud that it is. Efforts should be taken to mass a few more troops in Iraqi Kurdistan, and U.S. air forces should be on alert. America should portray this to the Arab world as a war against Islam by Russian crusaders. Let Putin know that they will be facing anger from the Muslims; we will be acting as their protectors.
Economic pressure could be applied; the Russians imported 9.3 billion worth of goods in 2008 (now down to 5.4 billion due to the economic downturn) and much of that
consists of electronics, machinery, and meat. Most of what the U.S. imports from Russia can be obtained elsewhere. Oil and gas are the most important Russian imports, and another round of "drill, baby, drill" could help reduce oil prices. I have argued that it was the drop in oil prices that
ended the Russo-Georgian war in the first place. Oil has turned Russia from a third world country into one capable of projecting power, and the Russians need to sell their oil as much as we need to buy it. Opening new oil fields in the U.S. homeland will trigger a drop in prices, which will pressure the Russian economy;
it certainly did immediately following the Russian invasion of Georgia.
Another possibility is to publicly express interest in Vladimir Putin's suggestion that we
place an anti-ballistic missile system in Azerbaijan. Russia gained a good deal of prestige by backing Obama down on missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic; the U.S. could make the suggestion (but not offer any concessions) publicly, forcing Russia to publicly reject the proposal. Any act of aggression against Azerbaijan would then be seen for what it is.
And, of course, the threat of a nuclear buildup could be a powerful deterrent to Russian aggression, as they cannot afford to spend the kind of money needed to keep pace with technologically superior U.S.. American expenditure on military hardware would be better than wasting an equal amount of money on Obama stimulus projects. At least Americans get security for the expense.
What the U.S. cannot afford is inaction. American inaction will be catastrophic to any long-term plans.
The Russians are famous for their devotion to chess, a game involving strategic thinking and staying a ahead of one's opponent. American foreign policy has, sadly, been mired in reactivity, especially from the Obama Administration which seems, at best, to believe in soft words and no teeth. America needs to get out in front of this.
Mikhail Gorbachev recently called Vladimir Putin and his United Russia party
"the worst version of the CPSU" (Communist Party of the Soviet Union.) If that is a fair assessment, does America dare allow her allies to be crushed by them? Was the victory in the Cold War in vain?
Does Barack Obama and his friends care if it was?
