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The Miami Beach problem has nothing whatever to do with sea level rise. It is a civil engineering problem of almost unimaginable magnitude

Sea Level Rise- Not Nearly As Alarming As Disaster Predictions Would Have You Believe



Sea Level Rise- Not Nearly As Alarming As Disaster Predictions Would Have You BelieveContrary to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) statement that it is 'very likely' sea level rise is accelerating, the highest quality coastal tide gauges from around the world show no evidence of acceleration since the 1920s. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability, unrelated to changes in the global average sea level say a number of recent reports. A new policy brief from The Heartland Institute shows there is no evidence of acceleration in the rise of global sea levels since the 1920s and concludes the (IPCC) concerns over this issue is 'without merit.' 1

Current rising sea levels are not abnormal, nor can they be pinned on human caused climate change

Another paper, this one from Judith Curry, found that the current rising sea levels are not abnormal, nor can they be pinned on human caused climate change, arguing that the oceans have been on a 'slow creep' for the last 150 years, before the post 1950 climb in carbon dioxide emissions. (2) Her report found that sea levels were actually higher in some regions during the Holocene Climate Optimum, about 5,000 to 7,000 years ago. Such conclusions are unlikely to find favor with the global warming movement, or within the academic climate 'consensus' where some experts have predicted that mean sea level could rise by 5 to 10 feet by the end of the 21st century. She argued that a more appropriate estimate would be about 0.2 to 1.5 meters, or six inches to five feet, and that anything over two feet is 'increasingly weakly justified.' Mean sea level has risen by about 7 to 8 inches since 1900. 2 Dr. Curry agreed that there is a human caused component to the problem, but said it has more to do with the earth sinking than the oceans swelling. “If you look at Galveston and New Orleans, much more than half is caused by sinking. And this comes from geologic processes, it comes from landfills and wetlands.” She cited groundwater withdrawal in the Chesapeake Bay area, which has also caused sinking. 3

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Bangladesh

Back in 1989, the United Nations issued a dire warning: either reverse the ongoing global warming by the year 2000, or 'entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels' and 'coastal regions will be inundated.' 4 The UN specifically referenced Bangladesh's looming fate, forecasting coastal flooding will displace 23 million Bangladeshi people. Now, forty years later, we can assess the effect of global warming has had on Bangladesh. From 1985 to 2015, not only did the coastal regions avoid inundation from rising sea levels, Bangladesh's coastal land area grew as a pace of 7.9 km2 per year during this span. The trend in stable or growing coastal land area amid rising seas has not just been limited to Bangladesh. Indeed, the overall expansion of coastlines for both islands and mainlands has been global in scope. 4

World's Coasts

A 2001 Salon magazine 'terror in the skies' alarmism featured a Dr. James Hansen late 1980s prediction that New York City's West Side Highway would be under water within 20 years. 5 Of course the West Side Highway is not under water today. Despite reports of relatively high regional rates of sea level rise, the Atlantic Coast of the United States has actually been expanding in recent decades after rapidly shrinking prior to the 1960s. Nor does it appear that there have been any detectable changes to its shoreline position since 1936. 6 Between 1985 and 2015, for example, satellite observations indicated the world's coasts gained 13,565 km2 more land area that they had lost to the seas. This surprised scientists, as they expected the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise, but instead they observed coasts are growing all over the world. 4

Islands and Atolls

Small islands and Pacific coral atolls are not being inundated by rising seas due to anthropogenic climate change. Direct evidence reveals many islands and atolls are increasing, not decreasing, in area as natural processes lead to more prolific coral growth and enhanced sediment transport on reef flats. Combined with evidence that sea levels are not rising at unusual or unprecedented rates around the world, is more evidence the IPCC's concern over rising seal levels is without merit. 1 A new paper assessing the area of 15 Florida Bay islands between 1953 and 2014 finds 12 of the 15 grew in size during this time span, which is consistent with the global trend. This adds to the growing body of evidence indicating rising seas haven't been the inundation disaster they've been made out to be for the last 40 years.7 Another paper, an analysis of 709 islands from across the globe revealed that no island larger than 25 acres, which includes the 'vulnerable' Maldives, Tuvalu, Fiji, etc.--has decreased in size since the 1980s. In fact, 89% of islands assessed are stable or growing. 8 Paul Kench and colleagues analyzed shoreline change in all 101 islands in the nation of Tuvalu. Results highlighted a net increase in land area of 2.9% in eight of nine atolls.9 This was a follow-on of earlier work by Kench and others that had shown are gains not only for Tuvalu but the Marshall Islands and a number of other Pacific islands. 10 In spite of these researchers work, journalists from major news outlets report in panicked tones that the island nations are vanishing because of climate change. Their dispatches are often filled with raw emotion and suggest that residents are fleeing atolls swiftly sinking into the sea. The Marshall Islands are a good example of this. It's true that approximately one-third of the population has relocated to the United States, but for reasons more mundane than climate change. Some 52.7% of the Marshall Islands population lives below the poverty line. Only 39.3% of the population age 15 years and above is employed. Significant problems include chronic government corruption, and chronic domestic violence, along with child abuse, sex trafficking, and lack of legal provisions protecting worker's rights. Is it any wonder why Marshall Island citizens want to leave? Blaming today's emigration on rising seas does a disservice to all, reports Bjorn Lomborg.11


Miami Beach

The New York Times and the LA Times have been running story after story about Miami flooding, Miami King Tides, Miami sea level rise threatening billions of dollars of infrastructure, etc. 12 Presidential candidate Jay Inslee was not happy when the Democratic National Committee shot down his request to hold a climate crisis focused debate since the debates were held in Miami, one of the major cities most vulnerable to the effects of the climate crisis reports Drew Kann. Unlike in past primaries, many Democratic contenders are treating the climate crisis as a major campaign issue. 12 Kann adds, “All of Miami Beach is low-lying, but parts are just a foot or two above sea level, making it prime to flooding during storms and extreme high tides, according to Miami Beach City Manager Jimmy Morales. Add the estimated 9 inches that sea levels have risen in the region in the past 100 years, and you have the recipe for costly flooding.” Here's what David Middleton says about Kann, “His scientific qualifications consist of a BA in magazines, an MS in journalism, about 10 years of experience as a video producer. 13 In a thorough analysis, here's what Kip Hansen points out:
  • The Miami Beach problem has nothing whatever to do with sea level rise. It is a civil engineering problem of almost unimaginable magnitude. This city has been built for all intents and purposes almost precisely at predictable, recurring sea levels. It is already inescapably flooding from normal predicted tides and it will continue to flood unless sea level drops a foot or two, which is not going to happen during this millennium.
  • Miami Beach is at such grave risk of sea water flooding today that it should preemptively be declared a disaster zone—not because of global warming driven sea level rise but due to a seeming total lack of sensible civil engineering standards and sensible building codes. Much of the above-ground infrastructure of Miami Beach was originally built on land in areas known to be below historical highest water levels (maximum), and some of it built below normal highest tide levels. To make matter much worse, much of it is intentionally connected to the sea by canals cut for this purpose.
  • Sea level rise, regardless of cause is a peripheral, minor issue to the problems Miami Beach has with the sea—Miami Beach is already a century behind in implementing mitigation efforts it it wishes to survive in the long run as a viable modern city. (14)

References

  1. Craig D. Idso, David Legates and S. Fred Singer,” “Global sea level rise: an evaluation of the data,” The Heartland Institute, May 2019
  2. J. Curry, “Special report on sea level rise,” Climate Etc., November 27, 2018
  3. Valerie Richardson, “Climatologist counters climate disaster predictions with sea-level report,” The Washington Times, December 27, 2018
  4. Kenneth Richard, “New study finds 12 of 15 islands in Florida Bay have grown in size since 1953, continuing a global trend,” notrickszone.com, June 3, 2019
  5. Suzy Hansen, “Stormy weather,” Salon Magazine, October 3, 2001
  6. Kenneth Richard, “New study: US east coast has grown +5 cm/year since 1960 after eroding -55 cm/year during 1830-1956, notrickszone.com, June 13, 2019
  7. Lu Zhai et al., “Remote sensing of unhelpful resilience to sea level rise caused by mangrove expansion: a case study of islands in Florida Bay, USA,” Ecological Indicators, 97, 51, February 2019
  8. Virginie K. E. Duvat, “A global assessment of atoll island planform changes over the past decades,” Wires Climate Change, 2019
  9. Paul S. Kench et al., “Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaption pathways for atoll nations,” Nature Communications 9, 605, 2018
  10. Murray R. Ford and Paul S. Kench, “Multi-decadel shoreline change in response to sea level rise in the Marshall Islands,” Anthropocene, 11, 14, September 2015
  11. Bjorn Lomborg, “About those non-disappearing Pacific Islands,” wsj.com, October 13, 2016
  12. Kip Hansen, “Miami's vice,” wattsupwiththat.com, December 7, 2016
  13. Drew Kann, “Florida faces a climate crisis as Democratic candidates take the debate stage,” CNN, June 26, 2019
  14. David Middleton, “Florida's climate crisis and sea level rise non sequitor,”, wattsupwiththat.com, June 28, 2019

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Jack Dini -- Bio and Archives

Jack Dini is author of Challenging Environmental Mythology.  He has also written for American Council on Science and Health, Environment & Climate News, and Hawaii Reporter.


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