By Ted Belman ——Bio and Archives--October 23, 2008
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“The withdrawal is to be achieved in three years. In 2011, the government at that time will determine whether it needs a new pact or not, and what type of pact will depend on the challenges it faces.”The US had hoped for better terms but Maliki resisted. Even so, the Iraq Parliament rejected the agreement and wanted more changes. According to DEBKA,
Gates warns Baghdad of “dramatic consequences” for pact failure. The US defense secretary Robert Gates responded angrily to Iraq’s unanimous vote Saturday, Oct. 21 to demand amendments in the draft status-of-forces agreement providing for US troops to stay in Iraq until 2011. There will be “pretty dramatic” consequences,” Gates said unless Iraqi politicians get behind the agreement. He said US officials were greatly reluctant to negotiate changes in the text which allows US troops to operate in Iraq after Dec. 31, when the UN mandate runs out. “What we have here is a final draft,” he said. The agreement calls for U.S. forces to withdraw from Iraqi cities by next June 30 and from the entire country by the end of 2011, while allowing those timelines to be extended by mutual consent. It gives the U.S. legal jurisdiction over American troops and civilian government personnel accused of crimes while on-base or on-duty. Iraqi authorities would have jurisdiction over U.S. personnel accused of serious crimes while off-base or off-duty.This rejection can be laid at the doorstep of Iran who, according to the US Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, wants the US out of Iraq sooner rather than later (Obama will be pleased) so that he can continue the Iraq/Iran eight year war to defeat Iraq or at least to keep Iraq unstable and thus vulnerable to Iranian influence. So the question for Obama is whether he favours a stable Iraq or early withdrawal. How does he feel about Iranian influence in Iraq. Apparently his desire for meeting with Iranian leaders has been stymied by Iran who has rejected such a meeting without satisfaction of their own preconditions. In the real world, campaign slogans don’t cut it. Pakistan is another matter. DEBKA advises
Pakistan asks for emergency IMF funds to stave off bankruptcy With a population of 170 million, Pakistan is also the biggest nation and the first Muslim country to turn to the IMF, troubled equally by near bankruptcy and an encroaching al Qaeda-backed Taliban insurgency. The IMF directors in Washington are expected to approve a $4-5 bn a first aid rescue package against outflow of cash as investors clean out their accounts in Pakistani banks. The level of cash reserves barely covers one month’s imports, inflation hovers at a 30-year high and the value of the rupee is in freefall, making food and other staples unaffordable. The new president Ali Asif Zardari is trying to raise at least $10 bn from western bankers to stave off bankruptcy within weeks from a group called Friends of Pakistan. The Pakistani army is engaged in ferocious battles to contain the thrust from al Qaeda and Taliban from the northern and western provinces bordering on Afghanistan to the country’s heartland. They are threatening not only to destabilize the regime but also its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan has 60-80 nuclear warheads. Bankruptcy would make it impossible for the Pakistani army to sustain its counter-insurgency and counter-terror operations. Economic deprivation would cut deep into public support for these operations. DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report that Pakistan’s woes are such that the United States, itself beset by economic troubles, is up against the need to provide instant succor for this vast Muslim nation at the forefront of the war on terror, a need as critical as the rescuing an American bank.Obviously, bombing Pakistan, as a solution, is sophomoric. These problems are so intractable, that one can deduce that solving the Israel/Arab conflict is irrelevant to solving them. In fact, forcing Israel to capitulate, will exacerbate them. The way I see it, US foreign policy will continue in its present mode.
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Ted Belman is a retired lawyer and Editor of Israpundit.org. He made aliyah from Canada in 2009 and now lives in Jerusalem.