Despite a rapid local sea level rise nearly 3 times the global mean (1.8 mm/yr), 15 of 28 studied atoll islands in the southwest Pacific increased in shoreline area during 2005 to 2015, according to a new study. For the 3 islands that experienced extreme shoreline erosion, with one atoll island even 'disappearing', a category 5 cyclone was identified as the most likely casual factor. Consequently, the authors concluded that 'the dramatic impacts of climate change felt on coastlines and people across the Pacific are still anecdotal.' 1
The study examined the shoreline of twenty-eight islands in the Funafuti Atoll between 2005 and 2015. Most of the islands remained stable, experiencing slight acceleration or erosion or a combination of both over time. Over the 10 year study period, 13 of 28 studied islands had a net decrease in area. The remaining 15 of 28 islands had a net increase in area, with a range from negligible values to a 5.05% growth on Falafatu 2
These folks aren't the first researchers to claim growth on these islands. Paul Kench and colleagues analyzed shoreline change in all 101 islands in the nation of Tuvalu. Results highlighted a net increase in land area of 2.9% in eight of nine atolls. 3
This was a follow-on of earlier work by Kench and others that had shown area gains not only for Tuvalu but the Marshall Islands and a number of other Pacific islands. 4
In spite of these researchers work, journalists from major new outlets report in panicked tones that the island nations are vanishing because of climate change. Their dispatches are often filled with raw emotion and suggest that residents are fleeing atolls swiftly sinking into the sea. No doubt residents are leaving the Marshall Islands, but it is not because of climate change reports Bjorn Lomborg.5
Here's a very recent example:
Damien Cave, the New York Times Australian bureau chief, writes a heart-rendering story with great personal touches about how the Solomon Islands are being 'swallowed by the sea.' 6
The story is about a seaweed 'farmer' who grows a particular wiry breed that's exported across Asia. The seaweed grows in the shallow water around his 'island'. Calling it an island is a bit of stretch, since it is really a sand spit or sand bar. At mid-tide, it is 24 steps across at its widest point and 58 steps long. Of course, the Sea Weed King's first sand spit got washed away by currents, so he moved to a new one.
Kip Hansen observes, “One has to guess what the elevation above Mean High Water is, the Times doesn't tell us, but it certainly isn't more than a foot or two. An annotated graph of the tide gage in the Solomon's shows variability of 18 inches, which is about the same as the normal daily tides in the islands. In fact, over the last 25 years or so, Mean Sea Level has soared and fallen over an 18 inch total range, ten times or so. The truth is there has been a very wide range of variability over the last 25 years. Mean Sea Level in the region is currently running low in the range, not high.”7
Also its important to note that while coral atolls are generally self-generating, sand spits/sand bars are not—they are at the mercy of the currents and waves.
So there you have it. A great heart rendering story about disappearing islands (really-are sand pits islands?) which totally ignores peer-reviewed research by a number of different scientific groups.
References
Jack Dini is author of Challenging Environmental Mythology. He has also written for American Council on Science and Health, Environment & Climate News, and Hawaii Reporter.
Despite a rapid local sea level rise nearly 3 times the global mean (1.8 mm/yr), 15 of 28 studied atoll islands in the southwest Pacific increased in shoreline area during 2005 to 2015, according to a new study. For the 3 islands that experienced extreme shoreline erosion, with one atoll island even 'disappearing', a category 5 cyclone was identified as the most likely casual factor. Consequently, the authors concluded that 'the dramatic impacts of climate change felt on coastlines and people across the Pacific are still anecdotal.' 1
