Species Extinction Overblown

Time magazine continues to promote the global warming cause with its alarmist reporting. One example, reported on August 16 on this site, was the 'sinking Pacific nations.' ¹ In its zeal to promote the catastrophe of global warming, Time ignored numerous reports that showed the island nations were not vanishing. One paper noted that 89% of islands assessed were stable or growing ², while another highlighted a net increase in land area of 2.9% in eight if nine atolls.³

Another area Time has accepted the alarmist position without question is that of species extinction. The United Nations has produced a report warning that a million species are threatened with extinction. Here is what Time says about the report: “Human activity has caused so much damage to the earth that 1 million of the planet's 8 million plant and animal species now face the threat of extinction, many within decades, a startling UN biodiversity report warned on May 6. The loss of species, which is now happening 'tens to hundreds of times' as fast as the average rate over the past 10 million years poses a dire threat to ecosystems all over the world.” ⁴ Time clearly accepted this alarmist position without looking for any contrary information. James Delingpole reports, “No one would dispute that habitat loss is a problem for plants and animals. But it's a big stretch from there to suggest that a million species are 'threatened' with actual extinction. The 'E' word has long been overplayed by environmentalists because it's so dramatic and final and because everyone has heard of the dodo. There is no evidence whatsoever, though, that the world is heading for its so-called Sixth Great Extinction.” ⁵ He adds, “Harvard ecologist EO Wilson once estimated that up to 50,000 species go extinct every year. How did he calculate this? Using the same method the IPCC uses for its junk-science prognostications on catastrophic climate change.” Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore exploded this myth long ago: He said in 2009: “There's no scientific basis for saying that 50,000 species are going extinct. The only place you can find them is in Edward O. Wilson's computer at Harvard University. They're actually electrons on a hard drive. I want a list of Latin names of actual species.” ⁶

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Along this line of thinking, Willis Eschenbach once pertinently asked, where are the corpses, what are the names of all the extinct birds and animals? The record of continental (as opposed to island) bird and mammal extinctions in the last five centuries was analyzed to determine if the 'species-area' relationship actually works to predict relationships. Very few continental birds or mammals are recorded as having gone extinct from habitat reduction alone. No continental forest bird or mammal is recorded as having gone extinct from any cause. Since the species-area relationship predicts that there should have been a very large number of recorded bird and mammal extinctions from habitat reduction over the last half millennium, I show that the species -area relationship gives erroneous answers to the question of extinction rates. ⁷ Larry Krummer reports that a close review of the most recent information dating back to 1870 reveals that instead of a frightening increase, extinctions are actually in a significant decline. What is apparent is that the trend of extinctions is declining rather than increasing, just the opposite of what the new report claims. Also, according to the UN report, we can expect 25,000 to 30,000 extinctions per year, yet the average over the last 4 years is about 2 species annually. That means the rate would have to multiply by 12,500 to 15,000 to reach the dizzying heights predicted. Nothing on the horizon is likely to achieve even a small fraction of that. This extinction study is just the latest example of misuse and abuse of the scientific process designed to sow fear of an impending climate apocalypse. ⁸ By curious coincidence perhaps the two most overhyped of all doomed species are now enjoying a remarkable recovery, not least because—contrary to the claims of environmentalists- humans actually do care about flora, fauna and diversity and have made great strides in preserving them. ⁵ Polar bear populations have exploded from about 5,000 sixty years ago to around 26,000 now—making a mockery of their status as an emblem of man-made environmental catastrophe. Meanwhile, the number of tigers in India has risen dramatically in the last decade. The estimated population of the endangered big cat has increased from 1,141 in 2006 to 2,226 in 2014.

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It's worth concluding with two readers comments from Eschenbach's paper: • Has sanity gone extinct? • It appears the only species headed for extinction is the increasingly rare Alarmist Globulus Warmus.

References

1. Jack Dini, “Time magazine and 'sinking' Pacific nations,” Canada Free Press, August 16, 2019
2. Virginia K. E. Duvat, “A global assessment of atoll island planform changes over the past decades,” Wires Climate Change, 2019
3. Paul S. Kench et al., “Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaption pathways for atoll nations,” Nature Communications, 9, 605, 2018
4. Clara Nugent, “A million species—and human society—face dire risk,” Time, May 290, 2019
5. James Delingpole, “Six reasons why you should ignore the UN's species extinction report,” breitbart.comMay 7, 2019
6. Marc Morano,”Climate depot report: rainforest factsheet: clear-cutting the myths about the Amazon and tropical rainforests,” climatedepot.com, July 8, 2009
7. Willis Eschenbach, “Where are the corpses?”, wattsupwiththat.com, January 4, 2010
8. Larry Krummer, “Hopeful news for us from the horse manure crisis of 1894,” wattsupwiththat.com, June 13, 2018