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There should be no more doubt regarding the ineffectiveness of atmospheric CO2 to control or drive climate change

Temperature and Carbon Dioxide: Defying Alarmists



The perspective CO2 leads to temperature change prevails in public, as well as in scientific perception, however, a number of studies say this isn't the case. The nearly global acceptance of economically devastating lock downs as a mitigating response to the COVID-19 pandemic has inspired many to question the assumption humans drive changes in CO2 concentration. 1 Prompted by the observation that dramatic COVID related reductions in 2020 human CO2 emissions had zero impact on the Earth's CO2 concentration, two scientists conducted extensive statistical probability analyses and concluded temperature changes lead to CO2 changes, not the other way around. 2

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The study shows, 'despite an unprecedented decrease in carbon emission, there was an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, which followed a pattern similar to previous years.' Temperature is shown to lead CO2 changes by about 6 months to a year. This study is not without precedent. Another analysis of the temperature-CO2 phase relation for 1980-2012 indicated 'changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions' and 'changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5-10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature.' 3 Other studies: German climatologist Professor Dr. Horst-Joachim Ludecke recently took data from two independent studies and superimposed them. The result also showed the long claimed atmospheric CO2-global temperature doesn't exist. 4 The first data set was of atmospheric CO2 going back 600 million years taken from a paper by Came and colleagues. 5 The second data set was of atmospheric CO2 also going back 600 million years, taken from a published study by Robert Berner. 6 The plots were combined to see how well they correlated, if at all. The result: no correlation. For example, 150 million years ago the atmospheric CO2 concentration was over 2000 ppm, which is 5 times today's atmospheric concentration of 410 ppm- a level that some climate scientists say is already 'dangerously high.' Yet, the global temperature 150 million years ago was more than 2C below the long term mean. 450 million years ago the relationship was even far more on its head: atmospheric CO2 concentrations were more than 10 times today's level, yet the global temperature was a frigid 3.5C below the mean. “There's no correlation between earth temperature and CO2,” Prof. Ludecke concludes. 4 W. J. Davis also concluded that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration did not cause temperature change in the ancient climate, which findings, he adds, corroborate the earlier conclusion based on study of the Paleozoic climate that global climate may be independent of variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.' “There should be no more doubt regarding the ineffectiveness of atmospheric CO2 to control or drive climate change. It is simply nothing more than a bit player, whose influence has been continually overestimated by climate alarmists. The big question is whether or not 500 million years of these data will convince them otherwise.” 7

References

  1. Kenneth Richard, “New study: highly likely our climate controls CO2 changes,” principia-scientific.com, October 7, 2020
  2. D. Koutsoyiannis and Z. W. Kundzewicz, “Atmospheric temperature and CO2: hen-or-egg causality?”, CO2 coalition.org, September 14, 2020
  3. Ole Humlum et al., “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature,” Globlal and Planetary Change, 100:51-69, January 2013
  4. P. Gosselin, “Data from 2 independent studies show no correlation between CO2 and temperature,” notrickszone.com, July 29, 2020
  5. Rosemarie E Came et al., “Coupling of surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Palaeozoic era,” Nature, 449, 198, 2007
  6. Robert A. Berner, “The long-term carbon cycle, fossil fuel and atmospheric composition,” Nature 426, 323, December 2003
  7. W. J. Davis, “The relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature for the last 425 million years,” Climate, 5, 76, 2017


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Jack Dini -- Bio and Archives

Jack Dini is author of Challenging Environmental Mythology.  He has also written for American Council on Science and Health, Environment & Climate News, and Hawaii Reporter.


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