--The Wall Street Journal
Protesters in Hong Kong have delivered the most stunning rebuke to Chinese tyranny since the Tiananmen Square uprising of 1989. The question now, after eight weeks of demonstrations, is whether China’s dictator, President Xi Jinping, will respond with the same brute military force used to crush that democracy movement 30 years ago. Serious observers worry the backlash is coming.
For Mr. Xi, who took power in 2013, the situation in Hong Kong presents an immediate threat to his domestic political legitimacy. State repression, bolstered by staggering levels of high-tech surveillance, has increased under his rule. In China’s western province of Xinjiang, despite international protest, the regime has for two years been dishing out torture and forced political indoctrination to an estimated one million Uighur Muslims held in internment camps. Dealing harshly with Hong Kong’s protest movement would remind the city’s residents—and the rest of China—who’s boss.
Mr. Xi’s main concern is preventing the protest movement from spreading to the mainland. Faced with legislation that would allow extradition to China, Hong Kong’s protesters reject the horrors of Beijing’s one-party rule. That sentiment also simmers among the 1.4 billion people of the mainland, where Beijing deploys legions of censors and security agents to keep the population under control. Mainland Chinese may not agree with the protesters’ methods or even their goals, but they visit Hong Kong by the millions every month. Many are aware that Hong Kong’s people are defying Beijing and getting away with it.
It’s possible Mr. Xi has lost patience with the idea of “one country, two systems.” Under the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration—a treaty deposited with the United Nations—China promised that Hong Kong would enjoy “a high degree of autonomy” for 50 years after the handover in 1997. That declaration protecting Hong Kongers’ rights and freedoms officially has 28 years left to run, but the two systems are obviously incompatible: One is free, the other isn’t. If Mr. Xi deploys the People’s Liberation Army to quell the protests, it would spell the end of “one country, two systems” in all but name.
Since the handover, a series of Chinese-appointed chief executives in Hong Kong have tried to impose laws designed to shut people up and force them to toe the party line. Hong Kong’s people have no way to stop this via the ballot box; Beijing has cheated them of genuine democracy.
What would prevent Mr. Xi from ordering a crackdown? Hong Kong is one of China’s most valuable financial assets. British colonial rule bequeathed Hong Kong a tradition of free trade and a dependable legal system, making it the most attractive business hub in Asia. The city of 7.5 million has one of the world’s densest concentration of banks, which are the main interface between China’s controlled currency and the U.S. dollar. Anything that scares away business, or prompts the U.S. to remove Hong Kong’s special trading status, would hit China square in the wallet and could spark domestic political upheaval.
Then there’s the reputational damage from a potentially monstrous spectacle played out on a world stage. Hong Kong is a global crossroads crammed with foreign nationals, including 80,000 Americans; the world would raise a fuss if the People’s Liberation Army opened fire in the city center.
Mr. Xi’s strategic calculations may be influenced by the embarrassing fact that the protests have grown even as China tries to tighten its grip. A young generation of savvy Hong Kongers is crowdsourcing tactics over the internet, gleaning lessons from recent uprisings in Ukraine and elsewhere. Unfortunately, Beijing’s precedent for dealing with a protest on this scale is Tiananmen. The most defiant demonstrators for democracy were shot, jailed or exiled. The millions who marched or sympathized were terrorized into submission. While the slaughter of June 4, 1989, horrified much of the world, for China’s Communist Party it was a success. The challenge to its power was swept away. After a brief scolding from the international community and the imposition of some short-lived U.S. sanctions, the world soon moved on.
Beijing has kept thousands of troops garrisoned in Hong Kong since the 1997 handover and is now laying the propaganda groundwork for a military crackdown. Last Wednesday China’s Defense Ministry told the press it would be legitimate for Hong Kong’s government to invite the People’s Liberation Army to maintain public order. On Friday China’s foreign ministry praised the army as “a pillar” of Hong Kong’s “long-term prosperity and stability.” Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam has largely dropped out of sight, but on Sunday she visited the Chinese army garrison in Hong Kong to attend a graduation ceremony at a military summer camp for youths.
If the U.S., Europe or any of the world’s democracies have a plan to keep China’s jackboot off Hong Kong’s throat, now would be the time to try it out. Abandoning the freedom-loving people of Hong Kong in their hour of need would send Mr. Xi a dangerous message. He would view it as an invitation to send the People’s Liberation Army on its next adventure.
Ms. Rosett is a foreign policy fellow with the Independent Women’s Forum who covered the Tiananmen demonstrations for the Journal.
Ms. Rosett, a Foreign Policy Fellow with the Independent Women’s Forum, a columnist of Forbes and a blogger for PJMedia, is a contributing editor of The New York Sun.
