We must elect leaders who are willing to take on the panic peddlers. If we keep electing politicians whose first instinct is to throw us, or our values, under the bus to avoid being called names by the media then we deserve our subjugation
The COVID-19 Models Lied, The Calgary Stampede Died
“Why are politicians still using flawed models to make critical decisions?”
The venerable Calgary Stampede is the latest COVID-19 casualty, marking the first time in 100 years we don’t celebrate cowboy culture. This means an already devastated Alberta economy is about to take another massive hit. The 2019 Calgary Stampede injected $227.4 million into the city’s economy and another $59 million into the Alberta economy.
This would be a serious blow in the best of times, but Alberta isn’t living the best of times. Over 100,000 jobs have been lost and more than $200 billion in investment capital has taken flight since Justin Trudeau declared war on the oil and gas industry, a decision driven by flawed climate models.
Experts decided the threat of COVID-19 spreading like wildfire throughout the large Stampede crowds was deemed too risky, and so, after careless consideration, the plug was pulled.
The COVID-19 models were WRONG!
Fear of COVID-19 was the predicate for the government imposed economic shutdown and social isolation measures, and that fear took out the Stampede as well. However, there is a growing body of evidence showing the models and experts were very, very wrong.
The initial model estimates, the ones that projected 2.2 million deaths in the US and hundreds of thousands in Canada, used a mortality rate of 3.4%. An accurate mortality rate requires an accurate count of the number of infected and the number of deaths caused primarily by COVID-19. To get the number of infected would require every person in the country be tested, and that the tests produce no false positives. We already know that COVID-19 is taking the blame for deaths caused by other serious pre-conditions like diabetes and heart disease, making an accurate death count impossible.
However, it wasn’t the mortality rate that frightened the public into a blind stampede, it was the enormous death projections. Those projections get more accurate every day, even with the padded numbers, and the US death total is unlikely to reach 100,000 and may not reach 80,000. A significant number but nowhere near 2.2 million. Using 100,000 as the actual death total means the model estimates were off by a factor of 22, or 2200%! And that’s the conservative calculation.
For comparison, if the COVID-19 model were used to calculate your monthly $1,000 vehicle payment, the figure it would churn out is $22,000. Would you pay $22 grand a month for that vehicle? It’s absurd, no one in their right mind would trust that model, except for journalists and politicians.
So, the models and the experts were wrong. What does that say about the political decisions based on them? They. Were. Wrong. Right? If we were to do the math on the political decisions, it would look like 2 + 2 = 88. Then again, they’re still getting paid, so, maybe they’re onto something.
The media’s use of flawed models and ignorant experts to pump the world full of panic was also, by definition, wrong. Of course, that is the most charitable characterization of their behaviour because even though they know the original models are wrong, they continue to push panic by warning of a second wave of viral demise and trashing the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine. They seem to revel in our suffering.
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They Know the Models Were Wrong, So Why Do Politicians Keep Using Them?
It comes down to competence or character. I’ll let you be the judge (but it’s character).
Imagine you’re a prime minister, president, premier, governor or mayor and you’ve made the tough emotional decision (there was no data at the start) to shut down the economy and implement lock downs. Your actions have caused massive financial and social harm. You know it, but you did it for the right reason, to save millions of lives.
Now the data is rolling in and it turns out your reasons, the model estimates, and ex-experts, were wildly off base, which means the draconian steps you took to shut down and shut in your people were likely unnecessary. Now what do you do?
Do you say, “sorry, my bad” or do you stick with the original misconceptions and stay the course, suggesting the need for business to stay closed and people to stay home? Do you toss the experts and their failed models aside or continue to use them to justify the path you’ve taken? Do you downplay potential treatments, or do you insist on waiting for a vaccine? Do you go against accepted belief, even if it’s fake, or do you go along to get along?
Cowboys and cowgirls were hogtied by cowards. We’re in a crisis alright, a crisis of character
We are learning that COVID-19 has a low mortality rate, that it can’t take the heat, and that it succumbs to Hydroxychloroquine and yet none of our political leaders have the courage to challenge the experts nor the integrity to admit they truly screwed up.
Politicians are also in a CYA cycle where they’re next decisions support their previous actions, which simply prolongs the problem. Their choice to cancel the Stampede defends their call to shut everything down. The decision to cancel the Calgary Stampede wasn’t the difficult choice, as they claim, it was the path of least resistance.
If they had said the “greatest outdoor show on earth” will go on, they would have been forced by media jackals to defend that dangerous decision. They would have been accused of recklessly putting lives at risk, or worse, having blood on their hands. COVID-19 didn’t take down the Stampede, fear did, and we see it has the power to kill culture.
Cowboys and cowgirls were hogtied by cowards. We’re in a crisis alright, a crisis of character.
Accountability And Justice
Who is responsible for the attack on our lives? Who is to blame for the abolition of freedoms and the killing of our culture? Is it the modellers spewing out nonsense, the politicians for acting on it, or the media for promoting it?
Someone needs to be held accountable for the grievous harm they’ve caused but it’s foolish to look to the modellers, politicians, and media for justice. If you haven’t noticed, they’re all on the same team.
We need to end the practice of using model estimates to enhance political power. It is a simple task to create a model that produces a desired outcome. Models are easily corrupted but, wow, do they work. This makes them an extremely valuable commodity for those who seek power for power’s sake.
We need to see fear for the weapon it is and come to terms with the fact that those who promote fear are not our friends. The media is manipulating us, not informing us. It’s imperative we reject their message and do so vociferously. Until then, we will be treated like sheep.
We must elect leaders who are willing to take on the panic peddlers. If we keep electing politicians whose first instinct is to throw us, or our values, under the bus to avoid being called names by the media then we deserve our subjugation. We need people with the strength to go full Trump on our fake news system and we won’t get that person unless we demand that person.
Accountability and justice? It’s on us.
Mark Gray hails from the Kirkland Lake, Ontario area and has spent over 30 years as an Analyst/Developer in Big IT, mostly in Calgary’s Oil-And-Gas Sector. Creator of an non-partisan, analytical methodology that seeks out and identifies Bias and Deceit embedded in weaponized information.
