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Even the Liberal media outlets are starting to acknowledge the harsh realities that are flowing from the Arab Spring

The Icy Arab Spring



He left us and we rejoiced; then an even more unbearable person came.—Arab Proverb The euphoria that followed the initial outpouring of support for the protestors in Tunisia and Egypt has started to fade, and even the liberal media outlets are starting to acknowledge the harsh realities that are flowing from the Arab Spring.

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After months of dithering over what to do about events in the Middle East, on May 19, President Obama announced that “after decades of accepting the world as it is in the region” the United States has “a chance to pursue the world as it should be.” He acknowledged that there would be times when America’s “short-term interests don’t align perfectly with our long-term vision,” but he said “there must be no doubt the United States of America welcomes change that advances self-determination and opportunity.” In recognition of our short-term interests, Obama looked the other way at what happened in Bahrain, home base for the U.S. Fifth Fleet. There Saudi troops were used to suppress a popular uprising and security forces arranged for the permanent disappearance of doctors who treated injured protestors. He continues to dither over events in Syria, where the government’s crackdown on dissent and the rising death toll is at least as great, if not greater, than that which impelled Obama to begin bombing government forces in Libya. Perhaps he thinks that Bashar Assad is more amenable to reason than Muammar Qaddafi. Meanwhile Obama ignores events in Yemen where al-Qaeda under the direction of Anwar al-Awlaki is poised to take control of parts of the country. Not knowing what else to do, Obama continues at great expense to rain bombs upon Libya, and he has started to shower Egypt and Tunisia with economic aid. But are the bombs and the dollars supporting “change that advances self-determination and opportunity?” In Tunisia, a secular dictatorship is probably going to be replaced by an Islamist one. The Islamist party, Ennahda, will likely emerge as the winner of promised elections, and secular Muslims, especially women, are frightened. They have good reason to be. Under secular dictators, such as Qaddafi, women went to universities, became doctors, lawyers and even government ministers. That will not be the case when Ennahda rules Tunisia. If the composition of the Libyan rebel government is any indication that will not be the case in Libya either since the New York Times (May 24, 2011) reports that only two women are included in the 40 member ruling council. In Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to be the dominant player in any government that is formed, police are casting a blind eye at attacks on Christians and the burning of Coptic Christian churches, and the interim government has permanently reopened the Rafah border crossing with Gaza which will facilitate the shipment of weapons to the Islamist terrorist organization, Hamas. Turkey has been cited by members of the Obama administration as a model for democracy in the Middle East despite the fact that the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party has imprisoned journalists—more reporters are in jail in Turkey than in China—and has arrested and charged with conspiracy those critical of its policies. The AK is portrayed by the media as a “mildly Islamist” party. After an early battle over allowing women to wear the headscarf, the AK has been careful not to arouse concerns among secular Muslims. However, feeling increasingly confident, of late, the Prime Minister, Recip Tayyip Erdogan, has railed against women who want to get a divorce and has called for women to have at least three children. Turkey was ranked 126th among 134 countries in the 2010 Global Gender Gap Index, and of Turkey’s estimated six million illiterates, four-fifths are women. In the upcoming election (June 12) the AK is likely to achieve the two-thirds parliamentary majority that it needs to rewrite Turkey’s constitution. Mr. Erdogan makes no secret of his desire for a more authoritarian and Islamic state. Unless the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) can pull a rabbit out of its hat, on June 13, there is every reason to fear that Turkey will begin a long slow descent into an authoritarian Islamist dictatorship. What the Obama administration, and every administration before it, has failed to grasp is that spreading democracy is not as simple as spreading seed in the spring. Even in secular societies it takes years for democracy to take root. In the Middle East with its sectarian, clan and tribal divisions, democratization, if it occurs, is going to be a multi-generation process. Moreover, there is no possibility of instituting change that advances self-determination and equal opportunity for all until there is an Islamic Reformation. As long as the Saudis, the Emirates and the Iranians continue to fund those who preach and teach virulent forms of Islam, terrorist organizations will flourish, democracy will languish, and women will continue to be treated like chattel.


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Al Kaltman -- Bio and Archives

Al Kaltman is a political science professor who teaches a leadership studies course at George Washington University.  He is the author of Cigars, Whiskey and Winning: Leadership Lessons from General Ulysses S. Grant.


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