Too Little Too Late?

The Revolutionary Guards are continuing to launch missile and drone attacks on neighboring countries and are threatening more distant locations. Ships are still trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. Why?

I see two major reasons. The first has to do with the survival of the network of Revolutionary Guards. They have enjoyed power since the 1979 revolution that brought in the theocratic rulers. Their brutal enforcement of Islamic law has not endeared them to the general populace, but they still retain significant power. Much like the Nazi SS in WWII Germany, they know that if they lose control, they can expect little mercy. Their only hope is to hang on long enough to where their attackers grow weary and seek to go home, much like was done with Vietnam.

US attempts to negotiate a peace with representatives of the current government merely encourage their resistance. A negotiated settlement with the current government would leave much of the power structure intact and able to rebuild an even greater tyranny. They will have learned the lessons of today to gain success tomorrow.

Only a complete and revolutionary change of government to one not based on the network of the Revolutionary Guards can ensure the transformation of Iran from its present tyrannical theocracy to a modern secular nation that can work peacefully with its neighbors.

The problem, though, is where shall such a government be found? For almost fifty years, the regime has been seeking out and eliminating anyone who might threaten their power. Following the example of Stalin, who understood that the greatest danger to a revolutionary was another revolutionary, the Guard has taken to heart Stalin's solution—eliminate the man and you eliminate the problem.

Thousands of potential counter-revolutionaries have been hunted down and eliminated over the years. Over thirty thousand were killed just in the last couple of years. Few remain in the current generations who are willing to risk opposing the Guards until they have been decisively eliminated. On several occasions, there were popular movements to overthrow the theocrats, most of which assumed that the US would step in to support such an uprising. They were always disappointed, often at terrible cost.

While the current attacks by the US are promising, most potential revolutionaries seem to be disposed to wait to see if the US is serious this time. Given their previous experiences, who can blame them for a certain timid desire to wait and see what happens.

It would appear that the US may have waited too long to step in and confront the current leadership of Iran. We waited until the threat of nuclear weapons became imminent before we took action. That delay allowed the Guards time to identify and eliminate more of those who could form the nucleus of a new government.

Some here question our justifications for our actions against Iran. For years, though, we have seen how Iran has supported terrorist activities throughout the Middle East. Their principal target has been Israel, but Iran has been active throughout the region, supporting persecution of Christian populations as well, and spreading their version of Islam far and wide to the detriment of many nations, and causing many of the problems with migration that plague Western nations.

It could take as many as three generations to rebuild a cadre of leaders from the native Iranian population. That is too long. Rapid formation of a new government must depend on the large expatriate population who left to escape the Islamic tyranny of the Imams and their Guards. It is time for them to come home.

Iran could be a virtual paradise. Its vast reservoirs of oil could provide the capital necessary to support a peaceful and prosperous population. Desalination plants could provide the water to make the desert bloom into a lush garden. Reservoirs could be refilled. Mineral resources could be developed. A proud and resourceful people could be unshackled from an archaic system to rebuild a prosperous economy with opportunity for all.

So far, this great wealth has been squandered to encourage and support terrorism throughout the region and even across the world. Weapons, training, and recently the development of nuclear weapons and long range missiles have consumed hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth at the expense of the needs of the Iranian people.

A clear case of justification for our current actions against the Iranian regime can be made not only on the basis of eliminating a major support of terrorism, but also on a humanitarian basis of freeing a people from tyranny. Just as clearly, a military victory alone will not be sufficient. We must nurture and encourage a responsible leadership to take charge once the current power structure is destroyed.

We must take care that we do not try to impose our own ideas of what that new nation should be. Our experiences with regime change in Algeria, Iraq, and many other places should teach us that the government must fit the people and the culture. The ancient Romans knew that imposing a foreign structure on a people was the work of generations, even if that structure was ultimately beneficial. We do not have those generations.

We must be like the French were during our own Revolution—supportive but not seeking to impose their own ideas on our Founders. Persia was once a mighty and influential nation, Let us encourage a peaceful example built on that heritage. Let us hope also that we are not too late in our assistance.