Trump wins Arizona's 58 delegates; Cruz takes all of Utah's 40

Split decision

, --March 23, 2016

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You'd have to call Tuesday a win for Donald Trump, not because he won everything but because Ted Cruz has gotten to the point where he needs to start winning everything. And while Cruz ran very strong in Utah's caucuses - most likely topping 50 percent and taking all 40 of the delegates there - he came up empty in Arizona, whose 58 delegates went to Trump and widened his lead:
Trump helped himself in Arizona with a hardline anti-immigration message and tough talk on Islamic militants to easily defeat Cruz, a U.S. senator from Texas, and Ohio Governor John Kasich. Trump had the backing in Arizona of Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, one of the most prominent supporters of a crackdown on illegal immigrants. The win furthered Trump's argument that he will eventually win the Republican presidential nomination and that the party should rally around him. He won all of Arizona's 58 delegates. "Much bigger win than anticipated in Arizona. Thank you, I will never forget!" Trump said on Twitter. "Hopefully the Republican Party can come together and have a big WIN in November, paving the way for many great Supreme Court Justices!" Cruz, though, won big in Utah's caucuses, giving hope to those Republicans who fear Trump's proposal to deport 11 million illegal immigrants and build a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico would guarantee a Democratic victory in the Nov. 8 election. Cruz appeared to be on track to win all of Utah's 40 Republican delegates. Since the state's 40 delegates are awarded proportionate to the popular vote, he needed to win at least 50 percent of the vote to take all the delegates. He appeared to benefit from Mormons who dominate the Republican vote in Utah. They did not take kindly to a Trump attack on native son Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican nominee who has led the anti-Trump opposition.
The delegate count now stands at 739 for Trump and 465 for Cruz. Just to get a sense of Arizona's importance, had Cruz won Arizona he would have cut Trump's lead to 681-523. Cruz can still get there with a winning streak, but it would have to be one heck of a winning streak now. The best he can probably hope for is to do well enough to keep Trump under the 1,237 majority needed to clinch the nomination by the end of the primary season. Between now and April 19, there are only two contests (North Dakota and Wisconsin) with 60 delegates total at stake. So Cruz has some time to find a way to change the dynamics of the race, of which a part would certainly be prevailing on John Kasich to finally give up the ghost and make this a two-man race. If that's possible. I'm not sure what point Kasich thinks he's proving at this juncture - he won zero delegates last night - and he remains in fourth place (behind Marco Rubio, who isn't even in the race anymore) at 143. But it's going to take more than Kasich's exit to turn the race in Cruz's favor. There are a lot of voters out there who you'd think would be natural Cruz supporters but are backing Trump. They're not jumping ship because of supposedly outrageous statements or any of the other things Trump does the that give the media fits. Cruz has to find a way to persuade those voters that if they want border security, seriousness in the fight against radical Islam and everything else that's attracting voters to Trump - that Cruz should really be their guy. What Cruz should do that he isn't already doing? To be honest, I'm kind of at a loss. But he's got about four weeks to figure it out. If we get to April 19 and nothing has changed, this thing is over.

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Dan Calabrese——

Dan Calabrese’s column is distributed by HermanCain.com, which can be found at HermanCain

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