Of course. Rand Paul would vote to eliminate the entire federal government if he could, along with every criminal law in the United States. He's a libertarian. That's what they do.
The challenge here is to get Cruz, Lee and Johnson on board without losing more than two moderates. The key is probably to address three areas:
- Speeding up the rollback of the ObamaCare Medicaid expansion.
- Tightening up or eliminating the continuation of premium subsidies.
- Lightening up on continued requirements of minimum benefits in health insurance policies.
All of the above would reduce the cost of health care overall, although the first two would also require more out-of-pocket spending for a lot of people, at least in the short term. That is actually how health care policy should work, but the American public has been trained to think that it's better if someone else is paying their bills, so it will be a challenge to sell it politically.
If I had to guess, I'd say Cruz, Lee, Johnson, Collins and Murkowski hammer out some sort of deal between now and next week, and a bill passes, possibly with the need for Mike Pence to cast the tiebreaking vote. Rand Paul will vote no because he needs to be a "consistent" hero to his libertarian fans by voting against government involvement in absolutely anything.
But that's just a guess. It's hard to imagine that after all this, these five won't find a way to prevent ObamaCare's survival. But you'll never go poor betting on Republican legislative failure.
Three conservatives and a libertarian walk into a bar . . . ah, you've heard this one, I'm sure.
This doesn't mean nothing will pass next week, but it means the exact bill released this morning by Senate Republicans will almost certainly not pass. As far as Cruz, Lee, Johnson and Paul are concerned, the senators drafting the bill gave too much in order to win the likes of Collins, Murkowski and Portman. If they want 50 votes, there's more work that will have to be done: