Ten years have passed since the uprising that toppled Libya’s dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi. Ever since, the country has been riven by civil war, with foreign countries entering the fray and providing military support to their preferred factions. Economic and political instability have become the norm for this failed state. The United Nations has tried numerous times to bring the warring factions together to achieve a political solution to the conflict. Its efforts have not produced the desired result to date.
Now the United Nations is holding out hope for a newly formed interim government created by UN-brokered negotiations among a 74-member Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF). Participants included Libyan political leaders and representatives from Libya’s plethora of tribes and regional factions.
Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah was chosen by majority vote to serve as the interim prime minister. Mohamed Younes al-Menfi was chosen as Head of the Presidential Council (PC), while Musa al-Koni and Abdullah Hussein al-Lafi will be representing southern and western Libya respectively as Deputy PC Heads. The LPDF members agreed that Libya would hold a constitutional referendum prior to national parliamentary and executive elections to be held by the end of this year.
“The United Nations commitment to support the Libyan people in their efforts to build a peaceful and prosperous country will continue,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said. “Libya is moving in the right direction.” Acting Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Stephanie Williams, declared that “[O]n behalf of the United Nations, I am pleased to witness this historic moment.”
Hope may spring eternal at the United Nations. Nevertheless, the outcome of this latest effort is likely to end with failure, just like the UN's previous efforts in Libya. Rival forces still control different territories within the country, backed by militias. Libya’s House of Representatives, which would have to approve an interim cabinet under the LPDF’s agreed upon arrangements, is hopelessly paralyzed. The economy remains in tatters, creating fertile ground for continuing instability and conflict.
Moreover, there is serious concern as to whether the LPDF process of selection for interim leadership posts and the outcome of that process will be seen as legitimate by all interested parties in Libya. Dbeiba, the individual chosen to serve as interim prime minister, is said to have strong ties to the Turkish government, which has taken sides militarily in the Libyan civil war. Moreover, according to a Libyan analyst, Mohamed Eljarh, “the Dbaiba family name is synonymous with a culture of corruption and clientelism that dates back to the Gaddafi era…” That does not bode well for a clean break with Libya’s troubled past.
Mohamed Eljarh observed overall that the “clear victors emerging from the political process are Libya’s Islamist factions and Turkey.” This raises further legitimacy issues with decisions taken by these interim government leaders going forward.
Eljarh also pointed to a potential problem for the United Nations itself flowing from the LPDF process that it brokered. “The legitimacy of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) in Libya is also at stake,” Eljarh wrote, “as Dbaiba has been accused of vote-buying inside the LPDF, with an investigation pending by the UN Sanctions Committee. When warned of the lack of action taken against Dbaiba by participants, UNSMIL and some western ambassadors shunned it off as a non-concern…”
The bottom-line question is whether the political path laid out by the LPDF will stave off resumption of the Libyan military conflict. That’s highly unlikely. The UN-brokered LPDF process not only papered over the deep divisions along tribal and ideological lines that continue to beset Libya today. The LPDF exacerbated the divisions with its choice of interim leaders who are predominantly on one side of the divide. This will only serve to perpetuate a zero-sum mindset where the losers will see no choice but to take up arms rather than accept a political outcome that they see as illegitimate.
Ten years have passed since the uprising that toppled Libya’s dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi. Ever since, the country has been riven by civil war, with foreign countries entering the fray and providing military support to their preferred factions. Economic and political instability have become the norm for this failed state. The United Nations has tried numerous times to bring the warring factions together to achieve a political solution to the conflict. Its efforts have not produced the desired result to date.
Now the United Nations is holding out hope for a newly formed interim government created by UN-brokered negotiations among a 74-member Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF). Participants included Libyan political leaders and representatives from Libya’s plethora of tribes and regional factions.
