Victor Davis Hanson Explains The Two Wars Trump Is Fighting In Iran - And Why He's Winning Both

There are two wars: military and political. The military one is dominant. Trump can easily decimate Iran —  knock out the water, sewage, power grid, communications, paralyze the country. But he's choosing not to, for strategic reasons.

Hanson's list of political constraints is the part nobody else is mapping:

The MAGA base — not in numbers (85-90% of Republicans support him), but the vocal minority with large audiences who call it a "forever war." Hanson's response: "I don't think anybody historically would say 30 days of an exclusively air campaing is an endless war."

The economy — oil surged from $50-60 a barrel to $100-120. Gas was $2.50 in some states, $1.80 in Iowa before the war. War creates tension in stock and bond markets.

The midterms — if Trump loses his legislative majority, Hanson says flatly: “you will see his last two years in office consumed by investigations and they will impeach him. You can count on that."

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VDH just laid out the most complete framework for understanding what Trump is doing in Iran — and why the… pic.twitter.com/UJflAyUAm5

— M.A. Rothman (@MichaelARothman)April 2, 2026

Israel — 75% of U.S. and Israeli aims overlap, but Israel is “proximate and vulnerable” in a way America isn't. For Israel, disarming Iran without regime change is “like shooting a bear in the shoulder and leaving him on the prowl. He is going to be angry and capable and furious”

And the broader Middle East fatigue — Americans remember the first Gulf War, the trillion-dollar Iraq invasion, the 20-year Afghanistan disaster, the $70 billion in abandoned military assets. “Anytime you go into the Middle East, Americans say, tell me when it has ever worked.”

Hanson's key insight: Trump's approach is Jacksonian. Don't nation-build. Don't meddle. But if you provoke us, the response will be “asymmetrical, disproportionate, deadly.” That's the doctrine. Soleimani. Baghdadi. ISIS. The Wagner Group. Maduro. All one-offs. No quagmires.

Trump isn’t fighting one war. He’s navigating five. And 30 days in, he’s winning all of them.