Wait . . . even McCain is ready to go nuclear to confirm Gorsuch?

I was actually going to write this piece differently, as I've found myself a bit dubious of all the assumptions that Senate Republicans will have no trouble passing the nuclear option to kill the filibuster and get Neil Gorsuch confirmed. Sure, they have a slim majority of 52 seats. But that majority not only includes a handful of moderates, it also includes some dedicated Senate traditionalists, who hate the idea of eliminating the 60-vote threshold for just about anything. Chief among these traditionalists is John McCain, who believes for some reasonss that the customs of the institution are more important than just about anything. If anyone was going to be loathe to kill the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees, you'd think it would have been McCain. But apparently not:

UPDATE: Senator McCain, a longtime opponent of Senate rule change, says will vote to end 'filibuster' in order to win Gorsuch confirmation

— Reuters Politics (@ReutersPolitics) April 3, 2017

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The decision by Chuck Schumer to filibuster the Gorsuch appointment is a real head-scratcher

The decision by Chuck Schumer to filibuster the Gorsuch appointment is a real head-scratcher. There hasn't been a Republican Supreme Court nominee since John Roberts and Samuel Alito were essentially appointed simultaneously in 2005 - and Democrats didn't use the filibuster then, nor did they use it against the hated Clarence Thomas in 1991. Gorsuch is every bit as qualified and unobjectionable as any of those, and he's replacing another conservative so he's not going to change the balance on the Court. The only way to explain it is that the base simply demands it as payback for the Republicans' refusal to give Merrick Garland a hearing last year. Except that, strategically, there's no way they can gain - assuming, of course, McConnell can actually pull off the nuclear option. If he does, then you're not only going to get Gorsuch confirmed, you're also going to have a mere 50-vote threshold if one of the Court's liberals retires or dies, and Trump is in a position to appoint a replacement that truly tilts the Court to the right. Even the retirement of Anthony Kennedy would have the potential to alter the Court's alignment because Trump could - if he's so inclined - choose more of a Scalia-style conservative rather than the swing vote type that Kennedy represents. You'd think the Democrats would want to maintain the option of a filibuster in the event of an appointment like that. Instead, they're going to dare McConnell to get rid of it entirely over Gorsuch?

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But if even John McCain is ready to go nuclear, I don't see how Schumer can possibly pull it off.

The only way I can make sense of this strategy is the off chance that Schumer is playing for 2021, when he might hope a new Democrat president would be in a position to replace Kennedy and/or Thomas, and he'd like to deny Republicans the chance to filibuster if that happens. Of course, Republicans have never filibustered a Democrat nominee, although they didn't need to with Garland since they could simply deny him a vote. Majorities can do that. Minorities can't. But if minorities abuse the filibuster and threaten to use it when it makes no sense, they just might lose it altogether. Maybe Schumer is gambling that McConnell won't be able to corral enough votes for the nuclear option and the Democrats will emerge with a de facto veto over all Trump judicial nominations. A day ago, I might have thought Schumer had a chance to win that gamble. But if even John McCain is ready to go nuclear, I don't see how Schumer can possibly pull it off.

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