Last Tuesday evening I penned an essay that appeared on this site early Wednesday morning March 21 (see Situational Awareness May Save You: Be On The Lookout). The purpose of that piece was to encourage readers to think about a thing or event that could severely affect one's wellbeing. Of course I was thinking dollars and cents and stock markets. But here's an analogy to consider.
Imagine yourself a tourist strolling along a major thoroughfare in a large city on a sunny afternoon. Everything seems safe enough. By dusk you've walked into a less friendly neighborhood. The hair on the back of your neck begins to rise. At nightfall you are aware someone is behind you and fear takes over. Given the unexpected stunning success in the securities' markets since Trump's election to POTUS, it is wise to reflect on the elevated value of share prices compared to the seemingly much improved prospects for American businesses. You are confident when you buy in, increasingly concerned as your wealth builds, and in unfamiliar territory you wonder how safe is your wallet?
Ignoring my foreboding concerns, on Tuesday the markets were moving nicely upward in a sunny clime. On Wednesday clouds appeared and the Dow Jones Average plummeted almost 1400 points in three trading days, paring more than 5% from market values. Was my notion eerily prescient, or like a broken clock occasionally right for brief instances? I'll answer for you . . . it was the latter. The sudden turn of events was unexpected, by me anyway. Sure there were issues potentially threatening to disrupt the neighborhood, blaringly touted by the fake news media to cast aspersions toward the occupant of the White House. It looks like they scored a few points with nervous market players.
But was it the dreaded "black swan" I wrote about just hours earlier? I think not. While the damage is considerable it is not in the major league of market disasters. This title bout between POTUS and his many detractors . . . think most of the officials and handlers in the arena, and few in his corner . . . has a lot of rounds to go. Trump is ahead on any reasonably considered score card and I believe the audience is rooting for him.
Time to man up here.
Bob was born in Toronto and began his financial career as a trader on the Toronto Stock Exchange. He relocated to California and became SVP and CFO of a $multi-billion diversified financial entity. He served on the board of many companies in Canada and US. An avid yachtsman, he owns a twin diesel ocean going vessel once featured in Architectural Digest magazine. He maintains a hockey web site. “slapshotreport.com” and currently resides in Sausalito, California.
Last Tuesday evening I penned an essay that appeared on this site early Wednesday morning March 21 (see Situational Awareness May Save You: Be On The Lookout). The purpose of that piece was to encourage readers to think about a thing or event that could severely affect one's wellbeing. Of course I was thinking dollars and cents and stock markets. But here's an analogy to consider. 
