Where do the West’s interests really lie?

Of all the challenges the West faces in 2022, does war over Ukraine need to be one of them? Evidently missing from consideration is the fact that the majority of the population in eastern Ukraine and, overwhelmingly, in Crimea is Russian. And they speak Russian, a language as different from Ukrainian as Catalan is from Spanish. Ukraine wants to retain its industrial base in the eastern provinces. But is retention necessary? There’s a case for the people of eastern Ukraine and, especially Crimea, to decide whether they want to remain part of Ukraine, to join Russia or to have their own independent country. Why haven’t the Russians called for a plebiscite? Conflicting sometimes with a commitment to the integrity of established borders, self-determination has been for a hundred years a guiding principle of international relations (except for Kurds and Armenians). There was a modicum of justification for Hitler’s similar interest in the Germans of Sudetenland and Danzig, if not of course for invasion and annexation of Czechoslovakia and Poland.

I believe we should also consider the Russian perspective in another context

Finland and Norway abut Russia without belligerence. Finland refrains from joining NATO and lives peacefully beside Russia. From 1809 until 1918 Finland had been, like Ukraine, an autonomous province of Russia. In 1939-40 Russia attempted to take Finland back but was rebuffed. The peace ceded to Russia three parcels of land, including the industrially significant eastern Karelia, and 400,000 Finns had to relocate within the country. I believe we should also consider the Russian perspective in another context. How would the US respond if Russia had an alliance with a neighbouring country and supplied armaments? We know the answer from the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962. It had the US facing off The Soviet Union’s deployment of ballistic missiles 103 miles from the southern tip of Florida. The deployment was in response to US deployment in Italy and Turkey. The crisis ended when both sides backed down. There’s also the precedent of the Zimmermann Telegram. In January 1917, the German Foreign Office sent a secret diplomatic cable proposing a military alliance between Germany and Mexico if the United States entered World War I. Mexico would recover Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico. Mexico had refused to participate in the embargo against Germany and granted full guarantees to German companies for keeping their operations open. The German High Command believed that, despite the ongoing Mexican civil war, their Declaration of War against the United States would enable the defeat of the Allies in Europe.

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Nonetheless, the West and Russia have contiguous geography, common culture and many common interests. There’s no comparison with China or Iran

British intelligence intercepted and decoded the telegram. On March 3, German Foreign Secretary Arthur Zimmermann gave a speech in the Reichstag confirming its text and thereby he ended speculation as to its authenticity. At President Woodrow Wilson’s behest, Congress voted to declare war on Germany on April 6. President Wilson had secured re-election in 1916 on the basis of the slogan he kept us out of the war. That said, the US was a major supplier of war material to the Allies, to the immense chagrin of the Germans. They saw the supply of munitions and the blockade of their own waters by the Royal Navy as justification for all-out war. On the grounds that the ship was carrying contraband of war, which it was, they justified a U-boat’s sinking the British liner RMS Lusitania off the south coast of Ireland on May 7, 1915. The loss of 128 lives out of 139 US passengers set the stage for American public opinion to reconsider isolation. The Zimmerman telegram was the kind of misstep that can happen when tensions are high, and US entry into the war led to Germany’s defeat. In sum, realpolitik suggests a more constructive approach to the Ukraine question without it amounting to appeasement. Yes, there are aspects of governance in Russia that we heartily dislike. Nonetheless, the West and Russia have contiguous geography, common culture and many common interests. There’s no comparison with China or Iran. As said the nineteenth century English statesman Lord Palmerston, “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.” Related: Putin threatened Biden with a complete collapse of US-Russia relations if he launches more sanctions over Ukraine