Netanyahu has met with Kadima and offered it an equal number of ministries with him being the Prime Minister. These ministries will include the foreign Ministry and Defence for Livni and Mofaz respectively. Kadima is mulling the offer. It is possible that Livni will reject it and Mofaz will accept it leading to a split of Kadima.
Livni has met with Lieberman and suggested that Kadima coulld work with Lieberman in promoting civil marriages and parliamentary reform.
NU met with Netanyahu and demanded a commitment to no Palestinian state. Netanyahu may be able to satisfy them because this coalition will only survive for about two years and it is not much of a commitment to agree not to create a Palestinian state in that time. Also they may find common ground in giving autonomy to Arabs (ie limited sovereignty). Bibi also wants defensible borders and an undivided Jerusalem which will also mitigate against a Palestinian state.
Although Shas and Lieberman were at each other’s throats during the campaign, they have both indicated that they can both be in the coalition. But they are at loggerheads on the question of civil marriages.
Labour has said it will say in opposition and maybe merge with Meretz.
I am expecting a coalitileon of Likud, Kadima and Israel Bietienu totalling 71 seats which will be quite stable. Other right wing parties will be added.
The Coalition lines will be an undivided Jerusalem and defensible borders. I think these three parties can live with that. For that matter so can NU and Shas.
We’ll see.
