By Wes Porter ——Bio and Archives--December 15, 2019
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Winter begins 21st December. The good news is that from then on the days get longer, nights shorter. The bad news is the weather wonks don’t know what winter will be like.
Even before fall began, the Weather Network was offering an online ‘winter sneak peek’ while the first day of autumn Narcity chimed in with ‘some parts of Canada are going to have a much better winter than others.’ Surprise!
Earlier still that venerable source of all that is rural, the Farmers’ Almanac, cast their hat into the ring, so as to speak. A ‘Polar Coaster’ set to hit Canada this winter, predicts the publication: winter will bring vast temperature swings, heavy snowfalls for most of Canada. The CBC remains unimpressed. Yes, winter is coming. But that’s about all the Farmers’ Almanac can predict accurately, opines the national broadcaster.
The Weather Network says Canadians can expect average temperatures this fall that will give way to a cold winter in central and eastern parts of the country. The network is predicting Western Canada, including B.C., Alberta, Yukon and Northwest Territories, along with parts of Atlantic Canada will have slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures for fall because of warmer oceans and wetter conditions along coastal areas.
Philadelphia-based private forecaster AccuWeather warns that Ontario and Quebec are expected to bear the brunt of the snowy storms this winter, with arctic blasts focused on the eastern Prairies. However out west, British Columbia will experience a mild winter with risk of late spring and summer droughts ahead. The bulk of the rain and snow falling in B.C. will land in the northwest, according AccuWeather..
Across the Atlantic Britain is bracing for one of its coldest winters in three decades, if one relies on tabloid The Mail on Sunday. The ‘Beast from the East’ makes a bone-chilling return with -14ºC lows after the jet stream shifts south. January-February 2020 could rank as the seventh coldest winter in the past 30 years due to Gulf Stream disruption according to an advanced forecast carried out by researchers at University College London.
Should you depend on any of these institutions? We’ve already seen the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s take. Nate Byrne, at CBC’s sister, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), is even less sanguine. How far ahead can we actually predict the weather? Hint: not very far, he suggests. In fact, the accuracy of forecasts is far shorter than you probably think. Want forecasts more than 15 days away? Not possible say researchers – and with today’s technology we’re not even close to that.
What here in Canada it all comes down to, as the late Charlie Farquharson observed, is “Winter drawers in. Winter drawers on.”
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Wes Porter is a horticultural consultant and writer based in Toronto. Wes has over 40 years of experience in both temperate and tropical horticulture from three continents.