At The Guardian, Suzanne Goldenberg has a story stating that "the toxins that contaminated the water supply of the city of Toledo -- leaving 400,000 people without access to safe drinking water for two days -- were produced by a massive algae boom." Goldenberg's story blames climate change on the water pollution, as exemplified by the article's title: "Farming practices and climate change at root of Toledo water pollution."
Within the story, Goldenberg claims that "the current bloom of microcystis is concentrated in Maumee Bay in Lake Erie's western basin, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A second, smaller bloom has appeared in Sandusky Bay. The main cause for such algal blooms is an overload of phosphorus, which washes into lakes from commercial fertiliser used by farming operations as well as urban water-treatment centres. Hotter and longer summers also promote the spread of the blue-green scum."
If climate change was the cause of Toledo's water pollution, we would need two criteria to be met for a causative linkage:
an increasing trend towards hotter summers and correspondingly warmer water temperatures in Lake Erie; and
an unusually hot summer with equally unusual warm water temperatures during this current year. Neither criteria is met.
This July's average temperature in the Toledo area was only 68.9°F, a full 4.3°F below the long-term average of 73.2°F since records began in 1873. In fact, July 2014 was the third coldest July on record since 1873 for the Toledo area. Since 1873, there has been absolutely no significant trend in average July temperatures in this region. In fact, the correlation is negative -- towards cooler, not warmer, temperatures. Over the past century, there is also no significant trend and a negative correlation.
The average maximum temperature for this July around Toledo was only 80.3°F, more than 3°F below the long-term average of 83.4°F, placing 2014 as the 12th coldest July since 1873 for this metric. Yet again, no significant trend over the past century.
The average temperature of Lake Erie on July 31 of this year was only 71°F, two degrees below the long-term average of 73°F for this date since records began in 1927. The average temperature of the lake this past July was only the 31st warmest out of the 88 year database. In other words, Lake Erie's average temperature during July 2014 was about average within a historical record dating back to the 1920s, and there has been no significant trend in either average July or July 31 temperatures since 1927.
To recap, July 2014 was one of the coldest months of July on record for the Toledo region, Lake Erie's temperature during the last days of the month was well below the historical average and the average lake temperature for the entire month was about average, there are no significant trends towards a hotter July in the area over the past century, and there are no significant trends in Lake Erie's end-of-July or average July temperatures since records began in 1927. But somehow anthropogenic climate change is to blame for the current algal bloom? No chance.
Fertilizer inputs to the lake most certainly are a valid causal agent for the severe water quality problems. Global warming is not.
Sierra Rayne holds a Ph.D. in Chemistry and writes regularly on environment, energy, and national security topics. He can be found on Twitter at @srayne_ca
