6.5 million ObamaCare enrollees? - Nice soundbyte, but not so fast

By Robert Laurie —— Bio and Archives April 1, 2014

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According to the Associated Press, the administration was on-track to sign up 6.5 million ObamaCare "enrollees" before last night's non-deadline. Admittedly, at first glance, that sounds pretty good. I'm willing to acknowledge that it's a better number than I expected. However, while it makes a nice sound bite, it's not the whole story.

In an article that focused on Healthcare.gov's multiple last-minute crashes, the AP put it this way:

"Nonetheless, the administration and the states appear to be on track to sign-up about 6.5 million people for subsidized private health insurance through the new online markets. That's half way between a revised goal of 6 million and the original target of 7 million."

Look for that number, coming soon to a bumper sticker near you.

So what's the catch? The catch is that the number is largely meaningless - at least until we get some more data. So far, the administration hasn't been eager to release the numbers that really matter. As the AP admits, the real test of ObamaCare will come down to how many people pay, and how many "enrollees" had insurance before the law went into effect.

"It is unclear how many consumers who have signed up ultimately closed the deal by paying their first month's premium. Also unknown is how many were previously uninsured - the real test of President Barack Obama's health care overhaul law."

You can add to the list of unknowns the all-important old/young ratio - otherwise known as the number of "takers vs payers" So, why don't we have these numbers? Here's Jay Carney to explain it:

Uh-huh. According to the administration, by the end of January they had around 3 million signups. Yet, we still don't have any payment numbers for those people either. We're not sure how they can claim they have "a good mix" when they've previously admitted that they aren't even trying to collect the data needed to prove that's the case. ...But hey, this is Obamaland - say it, and the press will pretend it's true! The sad thing is, it should be easy to determine. As healthcare expert Bob Laszewski writes:

There are two important pieces of information we need to have before the country can really answer this fundamental question about the way ObamaCare accomplished health insurance reform:

1. How many people have actually paid and completed their enrollment?
2. To what extent have we reduced the ranks of the uninsured -- -- how many of these people who enrolled were previously insured and how many of them were previously uninsured?

Reporters often ask these questions and the Obama administration says they don't know. And, that's the end of it.

But these questions are easily answered.

Every insurance company knows exactly how many people it has enrolled and who paid their premium at the end of every billing period. How else would they be able to process the claims for these people?

Fortunately, we have a new study from the Rand Corporation that might shed a little light on the subject. The study itself hasn't been released yet, but the LA Times got an early sneak peak. From Forbes:

A new study from the RAND Corporation indicates that only one-third of exchange sign-ups were previously uninsured. The RAND study hasn't yet been published, but its contents were made available to Noam Levey of the Los Angeles Times. RAND also estimates that 9 million individuals have purchased health plans directly from insurers, outside of the exchanges, but that "the vast majority of these people were previously insured."

It's important to note that RAND's findings are a best-case scenario, since (like the Obama administration) their numbers are lacking data on how many people have paid. We'll know more about the methodology when they release their full report. These numbers are, however, roughly in line with the McKinsey study that was released earlier this month. Forbes continues:

One important finding of the McKinsey survey was that the proportion of those who had formally enrolled in coverage, by paying their first month's premium, was considerably lower among the previously uninsured, relative to the previously insured. 86 percent of those who were previously insured who had "selected a marketplace plan" on the exchanges had paid, whereas only 53 percent of the previously uninsured had. If you apply that math to the RAND figures, you get this: of the people who have paid their first month's premium on the ObamaCare exchanges, and are thereby enrolled in coverage, 76 percent were previously insured, and 24 percent were previously uninsured.

So what's the bottom line? Well, until the administration gives us more info, bragging about 6.5 million signups is largely pointless. The numbers are all over the place, and without something solid from the (obviously) highly-biased HHS, we have no way of judging what's going on. ...which is probably why they're not crazy about collecting and releasing concrete data. If everyone who signed up over the last 5 days is paying and was previously uninsured, the administration would have a big win on their hands. If most of them were previously insured, or they're all "elderly or poor" booking subsidized policies, ObamaCare is still headed for insolvency and disaster. You can place your bets on which way it goes, but why do I get the feeling that we won't see the actual data until, oh, sometime just after the midterms?