Like many other countries around the world, the popularity of Barack Obama is greater in Canada than in the red counties in the United States. Last July, an Environics poll found that 69% of Canadians surveyed wanted Obama to win the American presidency compared to 15% who favoured John McCain. In an Ekos survey taken the month before the US election, the numbers dropped slightly to 64% for Obama while 17% of Canadians polled preferred McCain. Another summer poll showed that more Canadians preferred Barack Obama to any current Canadian political leader. Twenty-six per cent of respondents preferred Obama compared to Prime Minister Stephen Harper who came in second at 21%. If there is any surprise in all this it is that Barack Obama’s numbers are not higher than they are.
Canadians by and large are more supportive of Democrats than they are of Republicans. Democrats are more like Liberals that have the philosophical if not always the electoral support of the majority of Canadians. Support for the Democrats is higher in Canada despite the fact that this country is usually better off when the Republicans hold the White House and/or the Congress. Democrats tend to be much more protectionist and less trade oriented than their Republican Party counterparts. In ordinary times, most Canadians would notice little difference after January 20 when Barack Obama is sworn in as president and the new House of Representatives and Senate will have clear cut Democrat majorities. But as we have seen since the middle of September, these are no ordinary times.
During the presidential primaries Barack Obama announced that he would renegotiate NAFTA to ensure that employment and environmental laws and policies in Mexico and Canada are equalized with those of the United States. The conventional wisdom at the time was that Obama’s comments were simply political rhetoric and the renegotiation was not something that would be implemented. But, as the US media now keeps telling us, Obama is pretty well an unknown quantity and even if he were just to float the idea of renegotiating NAFTA it would have the effect of further destabilizing the already shaky markets.
During the 2008 presidential race, Barack Obama focused upon creating and keeping jobs in the United States. He announced that he would grant companies a $3,000 tax credit for each new job created within the US during 2009. Critics laughed at this as it is hard to imagine an employer creating a new job, costing thousands of dollars in salary and benefits just to get a $3000 tax credit. But, for example, a firm that is operating in Canada and employs 50 people stands to gain $150,000 in tax credits if they relocate south of the border. The implementation of this tax credit scheme could see more Canadian jobs lost.
Last week, Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty became the first prominent small “l” liberal Canadian to express concern about the incoming Obama administration. The president-elect is putting pressure on the Bush administration to bail out the big three auto companies and it is hard to believe there will be no government funds flowing to Detroit. McGuinty is concerned, quite rightly, that Obama will insist as a condition of financial help, that the auto companies bring a lot of their production that is currently undertaken in other countries including Canada, back to the US. If this happens it will deal a huge blow to the Canadian economy in general and newly designated have-not province of Ontario in particular.
The Canadians who jumped with joy at the election of Barack Obama and are looking forward in anticipation of the exit of George W. Bush may be in for a rude awakening when Obama begins work on his job creation strategy.
