China’s Carbon Emissions Continue to Increase- Far Outdistancing the Rest of the World

By Jack Dini —— Bio and Archives December 10, 2010

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In 2009, the US drop in carbon dioxide emissions was the largest since data collection began in 1949. They were 7 percent lower due to slow economic growth, a drop in energy demand of almost 5 percent, a drop in electricity generation of 4 percent, the use of more efficient technologies, and the addition of cleaner sources of energy (natural gas and renewable energy), Worldwide, emissions dropped 1.3 percent, mostly a matter of the economy. The last time carbon dioxide pollution dropped worldwide was in 1999. (1)

So this is one plus of economic downturn. However, if you think the present economic downturn is bad, imagine what it would be like if we followed the suggestion of Professor Kevin Andersen of the UK’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research who submitted a paper in Cancun saying ‘rich’ nations such as the US should halt economic growth over the next 20 years while allowing developing nations such as China and India to continue their explosive growth and emissions growth. He suggests enforcement of economic growth restrictions in nations such as the US should be similar to World War II-style rationing. (2) Let’s take a brief look at China and India: China’s carbon dioxide pollution jumped 8 percent from 2008 to 2009 and India’s went up over 6 percent. In 1990, the developed world produced 65 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide. Now it is less than 43 percent as those countries have cut about 10 percent of their emissions while the developing world has more than doubled their overall emissions. (1) China has long relied on coal to fuel its economic growth as about three-quarters of its electricity output is produced by coal-fired power stations. China totaled 46 percent of the world’s coal consumption in 2009, and amount 3.5 times more than the United States consumed and China became a net importer of coal when it imported 113 thousand more tons than it exported. India’s coal consumption has been increasing at 6 percent per year since 2000 and its net coal imports in 2009 were 74,000 short tons, about two-thirds of China’s level. Although India is endowed with less coal reserves than China, with 7 percent of the world’s total, its growing dependence on coal consumption will make it a growing contributor to carbon dioxide emission. Regarding emissions, one might also ask the question—what about emissions from cars? China’s vehicle market is predicted to rise to 30 to 40 million annually in 2020 from about 17 million this year. By comparison, the American market leveled off at 16 to 17 million in its best years before the current economic downturn and is on track for closer to 12 million this year. (3) So regardless of what developed countries like the US and others do to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, developing countries like China will continue their reliance on coal, the largest fossil fuel emitter of carbon dioxide. Referring back to Kevin Andersen who says rich nations should halt economic growth, one has to ask at what price and would it really make a difference? The current economic recession would be nothing compared to an economy with the halted growth he suggests. In Cancun, China is sanding firm on its position of voluntary, non-binding carbon cuts. Liu Zhenmin, an official with the Chinese delegation, stressed that China is a developing country and so isn’t subjected to an internationally binding frame under the current negotiations. China, the world’s top emitter of greenhouse gases, has maintained that the United States and other rich countries should make bigger cuts in their emissions because of their larger historical contribution to greenhouse gases. (4) Is China really still a developing country? World leader in emissions; 30 to 40 million cars predicted annually doesn’t sound like some backward nation just finding itself. What a great way to bury the rest of the world. We’ve already seen that rich nations can reduce their emissions with an economic downturn. China would have us go even further. References

1. Seth Borenstein, “Weak world economy reduces carbon pollution,” AP News, November 21, 2010
2. James M. Taylor, “Cancun Climate Talks Really About Wealth Redistribution,’ The Heartland Institute, December 2, 2010
3. Ian Johnson and Keith Bradsher, “China’s Rise Complicates Goal of Using Less Energy,” The New York Times, September 16, 2010
4. “Energy Resources: China Stands Firm on Emissions in Cancun,” UPI.com, December 8, 2010