I've just been perusing the delegate numbers as offered in detail here by Real Clear Politics, and while I can't embed the chart I'll give you the long and short of it:
Trump tends to do better in open primary states where anyone can vote. Cruz tends to do better in closed primary states where you have to be a registered Republican to vote. The majority of the primaries that have been held so far have been open - thus, Trump's early lead - but the majority of those still to come are closed, which would give Cruz a decided advantage if he didn't have Rubio and Kasich siphoning votes away from him.
I know there's a story that not every Rubio or Kasich voter would necessarily go to Cruz as opposed to Trump, but it seems a pretty good bet that the vast majority of them would.
And when you look at the overall numbers, here's what it comes down to: Out of 1,762 delegates still to be won, Trump needs 918 to take the nomination. Cruz needs 1,011. Obviously it's an easier task for Trump, but not that much easier given the delegate count thus far. Cruz is behind but based on the numbers alone he clearly still has a chance. (I admit I was a bit premature on Super Tuesday evening in thinking the nomination was all but won for Trump. Once I took a closer look at these numbers I realized that was not the case at all.)
But Rubio would need 1,127 to get the nomination, and Kasich - who hasn't won anywhere and even with a win in his home state of winner-take-all Ohio would only pick up 66 delegates - is 1,212 delegates away.
It's pretty simple and pretty obvious: There's no reason to think Rubio can storm from behind and get to 1,237, even if he wins the 99 delegates in his home state of Florida. And I don't even know if Kasich still thinks he has a chance, but anyone else can clearly see that he doesn't.
If this race became Trump vs. Cruz today, not only do I think Cruz could win the nomination
We've been very clear around here that we are not on the #NeverTrump bandwagaon. The only never we're committed to is #NeverHillary. But if you're one of those who thinks a Trump nomination is likely to make Hillary president, then understand this: Marco Rubio isn't going to be the one to take Trump down, and neither is John Kasich.
Only Ted Cruz can do it, and I'd say that the sooner it becomes a two-man race, the sooner Cruz is in a much stronger position to pick up those closed primary states where he has a built-in advantage anyway. California is still three months off, but if Cruz can keep it close until then, California's 172 winner-take-all delegates could wipe out Trump's lead entirely.
So if Rubio and Kasich are as dead-set against a Trump nomination as they claim to be, I'd like to ask each of them this: What are you still doing in the race? You two are the biggest factors working to Trump's advantage right now.
If this race became Trump vs. Cruz today, not only do I think Cruz could win the nomination, but looking at the schedule state-by-state and considering the delegates at stake in each state, and which states are open vs. closed, I think Cruz would win the nomination.
I guess it's up to Rubio and Kasich whether they want that to happen or not.
I've just been perusing the delegate numbers as offered in detail here by Real Clear Politics, and while I can't embed the chart I'll give you the long and short of it:
Trump tends to do better in open primary states where anyone can vote. Cruz tends to do better in closed primary states where you have to be a registered Republican to vote. The majority of the primaries that have been held so far have been open - thus, Trump's early lead - but the majority of those still to come are closed, which would give Cruz a decided advantage if he didn't have Rubio and Kasich siphoning votes away from him.
