By Roslyn Kunin, Director of the BC office, Canada West Foundation
Canada's economy is about to make another dramatic shift, this time away from the major metropolitan centres to medium, smaller and rural areas as resource and demographic shifts become more important to the country's economic well-being.
The first dramatic shift has occurred over the last ten years, one that saw Canada's economy swing away from the geographic centre of the country to the West, from manufacturing to resources.
This shift will only intensify over the coming years, but because food and resources are expected to show significant positive growth at least until 2020, economic activity will concentrate in those areas which produce these resources in abundance. In this case, that means rural parts of Canada, specifically but not exclusively in the West.
The primary sector of our industrial structure includes agriculture, fishing, mining and energy production. The rural West produces these resources in abundance.
The coming economic shift to was illustrated in a recently released study by the Canada West Foundation: Economic Development Issues for Rural Communities in the Four Western Provinces, 2010-2015-2020.
What are the reasons for the shift? Outside the industrialized world, there has always been a need for more and better food and the improved standard of living that wisely invested resources could provide, but the poorer countries could not afford to pay for what they needed. Now strong economic growth and rising incomes can be found in China, India, Eastern Europe, as well as other parts of the world. The shift of manufacturing to the developing world, away from the developed world, is major contributor to that growth.
The result will be a strong and ongoing global demand for food products, including more high-on-the-food-chain proteins, and for the energy, metals and other resources needed to build and maintain the infrastructure around the world that a comfortable, industrialized standard of living requires.
These resources, including agricultural land, are not found in major metropolitan areas. They are in the rural areas served by the smaller and middle sized centres scattered throughout the western provinces.
Another resource that these smaller communities have is affordable housing. As large numbers of baby boomers approach retirement age, many will be drawn to leave large cities for the smaller ones with their more relaxed, and affordable, life style
For the potential prosperity of the rural west to become a reality, however, certain conditions must be met. First, there must be an appropriate quantity and quality of workers. The workforce of today and tomorrow, even in industries like agriculture and mining, must have a high level of both business and technical skills. Some of these may come from older people moving to the more rural areas but. younger workers will also have to be attracted to move where they are needed. Local young people must also be convinced to stay put, retained by coming attractive opportunities.
We must also pay attention to Aboriginal communities, both because they have a younger population and also because a higher proportion of First Nations people are already located in non-metropolitan areas. Immigration will also still be required to ensure that there are sufficient suitable people to meet our industries' needs.
But it is infrastructure that turns a remote rural wasteland into a resource laden asset. It is vital that Transportation systems - by land, air and (where appropriate) water – be upgraded to take advantage of the coming economic shift. . Communication systems (much easier with today's technology) are vital. People, however, will only stay where there are adequate medical, educational and other services to support their lifestyle and that of their families. A lack in any of these areas would limit or eliminate opportunities.
If, however, we rise to the challenges of supporting the smaller centres and rural areas, the western provinces and all of Canada will benefit from the resulting economic prosperity.
