How Trump’s exit from the nuclear deal is already putting the hurt on Iran

There was some doubt – and I harbored some myself – that the U.S. pulling out unilaterally from the Iran nuclear deal would really put any meaningful pressure on Iran. The deal was between six countries, and even if U.S. companies were not able to do business with Iran, those in the others still seemed eager to do so. Even if the U.S. could freeze Iran’s remaining assets, they could probably find a way to get at them by laundering them through other countries.

Then again, the U.S. is a big and influential player in international markets, and if faced with a choice of pleasing Iran or pleasing the United States, that’s a pretty easy choice from an economic perspective. The Trump Administration seemed to recognize in pulling out of the deal that this was its best leverage point, and played it well. Now we’re already seeing evidence that it’s making a difference:

The United States began reimposing economic sanctions this summer and the most draconian measures, which seek to force Iran’s major customers to stop buying its oil, resume Nov. 5. Their impending return has contributed to a slide in Iran’s currency. The rial has lost about two-thirds of its value this year, hitting a record low against the U.S. dollar this month. The European Union has implemented a law to shield European companies from U.S. sanctions. Still, there are limits to what it can do to counter the oil sanctions, under which Washington can cut off from the U.S. financial system any bank that facilitates an oil transaction with Iran. Many European companies are withdrawing or have withdrawn from Iran because of U.S. sanctions that could cut them off from the American market if they stay.

The European Union has implemented a law to shield European companies from U.S. sanctions

The nations remaining in the deal are trying to find a way to save it, not out of any rational calculation that the deal really prevents Iran from getting the bomb – only a moron would believe that – but out of sheer economic self-interest because they want access to Iran’s markets. The U.S. is the lone western nation saying it’s not worth it to risk a nuclear Iran just so some of your nation’s companies can make a few bucks there. And unlike Barack Obama and John Kerry, Donald Trump and his team are not so naive as to think you can let Iran develop nuclear weapons and no one will be at serious risk as a result. The U.S. pullout is making a difference, already, and Iran is scrambling as a result. Good. That’s exactly what should be happening.

Dan Calabrese——Bio and Archives

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