Latest Polling Data Still Doesn't Show Broad Support for a Federal Carbon Tax

Despite the spin to the contrary in the mainstream media and by politicians on both the left and right of the political spectrum, the latest polling data simply does not show broad support for a federal carbon tax in Canada.

Abacus Data has released polling data obtained between December 18 and 20, 2014 which asked respondents whether they approve or disapprove of "Stephen Harper's decision not to introduce a tax to reduce carbon emissions." The margin of error is 2.6 percent 19 times out of 20. Among all respondents, 37 percent indicated they approved (either strongly or mostly) of the decision not to introduce a carbon tax. Only 41 percent said they disproved (again, either strongly or mostly). This would be a statistical tie, particularly when 22 percent are "unsure." In British Columbia -- which has experienced first-hand an economically punishing carbon tax since 2008 -- 42 percent agreed with Harper's decision (to date) to not bring in a carbon tax, versus 36 percent that disapproved of the choice. For Ontario, which also saw first-hand the results of a green energy folly, there is a tie at 39 percent each between those that do and do not approve of the Prime Minister's choice to avoid a carbon tax. In fact, Ontario has the lowest percentage of respondents that "strongly disapprove" of Harper's decision. Only Quebec has a clear number of survey replies in favor of carbon taxation -- all other provinces and regions have an effective statistical tie, or lean against a federal carbon tax. The large percentage of the unsure vote is a reflection of the public's inability to get reliable information in the media on the true costs of a carbon tax. Although many carbon tax proponents cite the supposed need to reduce carbon emissions and give optimistic economic predictions, the public is not generally buying the vague rhetoric. Serious concerns remain regarding the necessity and cost of any carbon taxation. Even sizeable constituencies of those who voted for the Liberal Party (47 percent), NDP (43 percent), and Green Party (48 percent) in 2011 approve of Harper's decision against formal carbon taxation or are unsure about the issue. Perhaps surprisingly, 35 percent of Green Party voters approve of Harper's anti-carbon tax stance. No clear leanings towards carbon taxation are evident in any of the age groups, either, and certainly not among youth -- who are evenly split at 37 percent either way with 26 percent unsure. Carbon taxation is not a popular topic, and conservative politicians who advocate for it are doing so at their own electoral peril.

Sierra Rayne——Bio and Archives

Sierra Rayne holds a Ph.D. in Chemistry and writes regularly on environment, energy, and national security topics. He can be found on Twitter at @srayne_ca