No Trend in Peak Flows on Fraser River Since Records Began

A new report released in Vancouver, British Columbia has found that "more frequent floods [on the Fraser River] could threaten 300,000 people's homes and $50 billion worth of property." Apparently "the report says 100-year flood events on the Fraser could now occur as often as every four to 10 years." And all of this is due to climate change.

How much will it cost to prepare for this climate apocalypse? Well, the report answers that for us: "The cost of upgrading flood defenses and dredging along the Lower Fraser River is estimated at $9.5 billion." OK, so climate change is turning 1-in-100 year floods into 1-in-4 or 10 year floods, and it'll cost us nearly $10 billion to prepare for this. Here are the annual maximum daily discharge values for the Fraser River at Hope hydrometric station (located upstream of Vancouver) since records began in 1912. There is absolutely no significant trend in peak flows since 1912 (actually, the correlation is negative, towards smaller peak flows), and similarly no significant trend (and still a negative correlation) since 1970. Peak flows on the Fraser River near Vancouver are simply not increasing over time, and they exhibit no correlation with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Yet the taxpayers should foot a $10 billion bill to prepare for a climate change induced flooding apocalypse that the historical record provides no support for?

Sierra Rayne——Bio and Archives

Sierra Rayne holds a Ph.D. in Chemistry and writes regularly on environment, energy, and national security topics. He can be found on Twitter at @srayne_ca