The beginning of the end of Dalton McGuinty Jr.

A poll taken last month by Nanos Research puts the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party in a statistically dead heat with the governing Liberals. The Official Opposition has the support of 35% of respondents while 36.6% of those polled favour the McGuinty Liberals. A similar poll taken six months ago had the government with a 16 point lead over the opposition Tories.

The October poll also saw a sharp drop in the popularity of Dalton McGuinty. His approval rating dropped from 42.1% last May to 26.9% in October. Pundits and editorialists are quick to speculate on exactly why the provincial Liberals are sinking. One reason given is that the province has projected a deficit of almost $25 billion. Not only will this be the largest deficit in the province’s history but it is almost twice the amount that was earlier projected. But it’s hard to believe that the nanny state mentality in the province that has led to two successive McGuinty majority governments would be bothered by the province’s current financial hole. Huge deficits are being run all over the world including in Ottawa to combat the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. It’s trendy to run a huge deficit. And speaking of the worst economic times since the 30s, has anyone heard that Great Depression reference lately? Deficits are the new normal and had McGuinty actually balanced the province’s books that would have been something to worry about. Another reason given for the freefall that the Liberals seem to be in are the scandals at eHealth. About a billion dollars was spent on putting Ontarians medical records online with little to show for it. Besides that, the Liberals handed sole-sourced contracts to their friends who used their expense accounts to buy coffee and doughnuts at the taxpayers’ expense. But what happened at eHealth was just an example of how the Liberals always do business and not many people seem bothered that the premier defended Health Minister David Caplan right up to the time that Caplan was booted from the cabinet. It has to be remembered that it was a Liberal who succinctly expressed the way Liberals think; “I’m entitled to my entitlements”. Ontarians are not only used to the way eHealth was run but come to expect it and it’s hard to believe that this scandal could lead to the government’s sagging poll numbers. This pretty well leaves the Harmonized Sales Tax as a possible reason why the good ship McGuinty is sinking. The Ontario government introduced legislation this week that will combine the provincial sales tax with the GST, effective July 2010. This will see Ontarians paying 8% more for goods that are currently exempt from the PST and for all services. Everything from home heating fuel to gasoline to auto insurance and dental bills will cost more. The interesting thing about the HST is that it is a conservative and Conservative policy being pushed by federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty. When the legislation is fully implemented it will reduce costs to businesses which will benefit job creation and permit businesses to pass their lower costs on to final consumers. It is interesting to watch as the provincial Tories oppose this while the NDP are suddenly against the tax increases that consumers will first notice. It really is an upside down world. McGuinty says that the implementation of the HST will be revenue neutral and has plans to bribe Ontarians with their own money. As for being revenue neutral, that probably isn’t true but Dalton McGuinty’s punishment for the big lie in his first term (the largest tax grab in provincial history after he promised not to raise taxes) was to be given a second majority government. Even if the HST were to eventually become revenue neutral and improve the economy, it is the sudden increase in the cost of services and some goods that Ontarians will see first. But it’s hard to believe that that his would be a reason to dump the governing Liberals. In the end the Ontario Liberals will be pushed from office for the reason that most governments in Canada are thrown out; they’ve simply been around too long.

Arthur Weinreb——Bio and Archives

Arthur Weinreb is an author, columnist and Associate Editor of Canada Free Press. Arthur’s latest book, Ford Nation: Why hundreds of thousands of Torontonians supported their conservative crack-smoking mayor is available at Amazon. Racism and the Death of Trayvon Martin is also available at Smashwords. His work has appeared on Newsmax.com,  Drudge Report, Foxnews.com.

Older articles (2007) by Arthur Weinreb