By Dan Calabrese —— Bio and Archives September 12, 2017
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Though the United States had proposed a complete ban, the sanctions by the U.N. Security Council to punish North Korea for its sixth nuclear test cap Pyongyang's annual imports of crude oil at the same level they have been for the past 12 months: an estimated 4 million barrels. Exports of North Korean textiles are prohibited, and other nations are barred from authorizing new work permits for North Korean workers, putting a squeeze on two key sources of hard currency. The measures were approved unanimously Monday. The measures to punish Pyongyang for its Sept. 3 nuclear test also ban the country from importing natural gas liquids and condensates, and limit the import of refined petroleum products to 2 million barrels a year. That could be a significant restriction. According to Chinese customs data, North Korea imports nearly 2.2 million barrels a year in petroleum products, but some U.S. officials believe the true number is much higher: about 4.5 million barrels. So the 2 million barrel cap could be cutting existing imports 10 percent, or slashing them by more than half.
But how much impact the oil and fuel component of the sanctions will actually have - even if strictly enforced, which is always a concern - is an open question. David von Hippel, an energy expert with the Nautilus Institute think tank who has done extensive research on North Korea, said he doubts that oil sanctions will hit the regime very hard. "The textile sanctions actually might have more impact, as they are probably a good source of value-added income - value added by people you don't have to pay much - for the regime," he said. "But I'm not sure that they will really have much effect on the nuclear weapons and missile programs, given the priority that those initiatives must have for the DPRK leadership."Note the passage I put in bold in the excerpt. Not only did they not impose a total ban, but UN sanctions are notorious for not really being enforced. The chance of this really weakening the Kim regime to the point where Bowl Cut Jr. could lose control of the country is extremely slim, and that's the only outcome that makes a difference here. Let's say for the sake of argument that North Korea can really import only 2 million barrels of oil now, whereas before it could import 4.5 million. If Bowl Cut Jr. has to choose between the needs of the poeple and the needs of the military, what do you think he's going to do?
Dan Calabrese’s column is distributed by HermanCain.com, which can be found at HermanCain
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