Utah: Trump, Clinton locked in statistical dead heat. ...With Evan McMullin? Bernie still alive in VT?

For nuts and bolts electoral college wonks, there's a long-simmering theory that's slowly been gaining a bit more credibility. The idea is that conservative independent candidate, Republican Evan McMullin, could take Utah. This, ever-so-slightly, opens the door to the possibility that no candidate would achieve the required 270 electoral votes to win, and the whole thing would be decided by the incoming House of Representatives. There, each state gets one vote - regardless of population - and the 12th Amendment commands them to choose between the top three candidates. If the House GOP stuck together, they could dump Trump and pick McMullin. Thus, it's conceivable that he could win with only one state under his belt. It's unlikely to the point of absurdity but it's not impossible, so it's the kind of thing that gets political nerds all whipped up.

If you're one of those people, your crazy longshot has just gotten a couple of shots in the arm. The first is the following Rasmussen poll, as reported by HeatStreet:

The poll of likely voters, conducted Saturday and Sunday by Rasmussen Reports shows a sensational result in Utah, where two points separates the top three candidates. Donald Trump has 30%, conservative Evan McMullin has 29%, and Hillary Clinton has 28%. Gary Johnson has collapsed to 5%, with Stein at 1%. For both Clinton and McMullin, it is their best showing in the state in any major poll thus far. 750 likely voters were polled by telephone. The presidential preference question was as follows: If the 2016 Presidential Election were held today, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, Independent Conservative Evan McMullin, Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?

Results were: 30% Trump 28% Clinton 29% McMullin 5% Johnson 1% Stein 2% Some other candidate 4% Not sure

Utah is deep red, so it's unlikely that Hillary will be able to do much better there. Most people believe the GOP vote will eventually break one way or the other and, since it's so close, that could mean McMullin wins the state. That wouldn't be enough to trigger the scenario outlined above but, if you're still hoping to see it happen, you also may be getting some help from Vermont. There, Bernie fans may be planning to go down with the S.S. Sanders. From McClatchy:

Bernie Sanders doesn’t want to be president, but he could snatch three electoral votes in Vermont. That’s because Vermont is one of seven states that allow voters to write in anyone for president, even if they have no intention of running for office. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are two of the most disliked presidential candidates ever, and Google searches for write-in ballots are skyrocketing. Vermont is one of the states asking Google about write-in votes the most.

How serious is that? Who knows. Probably not very. Bernie fans are a dedicated bunch. Even if their preferred candidate did sell his soul to Hillary, they might try to make a point by throwing him a 3 vote bone. The problem with the "McMullin Miracle" theory is this. Even if he and Sanders managed to take a few votes, Trump would still have to do exceptionally well to keep Hillary from reaching the 270 vote threshold. Basically he'd have to win a whole pile of too-close-to-call battleground states to make the math work. If he could do that, the odds are he'd be doing well enough that he'd also take Utah. So, McMullin is probably not going to send the election to the House of Representatives. Still, with his strong polling in Utah, you're going to see this theory making the rounds, and it's fun to play with the numbers - even if it is just an exercise in "what if?" ...probably. ...maybe? ...nah.

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