What Would Destroy Ukraine Faster – War or Corruption?

After almost three years of war with Russia, Ukraine has become one of the poorest countries in Europe. The Ukrainian civilian labor force has shrunk from 11.5 million to 9 million people; various sectors of industry, including metallurgy and the agricultural sector, have suffered; and the country's economy exists only due to financial injections from outside.

Many serious problems also remain in the energy infrastructure. In September 2024, the European Commission stated that half of all the Ukrainian energy infrastructure had been destroyed and expressed concern that the population would be left without heating and water this winter.

Moreover, social problems that have been accumulating since 2022 also contribute to the internal destabilization of the country. Thus, transport disruptions and the emerging crisis in the food sector could become the last straw. Recently, it became known about a massive failure in the work of the Ukrainian supermarket chain “Velmart”.

Large queues formed at stores across the country while some of them even were forced to close for several days, depriving people of the opportunity to buy essential goods. And if living without electricity and heating is at least somewhat possible, then lack of food could become critical.

Long before the war Ukraine was already known as one of the most corrupt countries, and the conflict with Russia became a truly “golden age” for illegal activities and dishonest politicians. Such actions as draft dodging for bribes, illegal border crossing, arms trafficking, and uncontrolled spending of subsidy funds have become commonplace.

Those who possess money and resources use them to pursue their commercial interests. In all likelihood, the above-mentioned chain of Ukrainian supermarkets also became the victim of the struggle for influence and unhealthy competition. However, the desire to make money in a difficult period for the country contributes to further destabilizing the situation within it.

Such an attitude towards one's own country, along with Ukraine's enormous debts to foreign nations, only accelerates the process of decline. Realizing that the country would not be able to pay all its debts, creditors concluded a new agreement with Kiev to defer payments for another 12 years. However, will Ukraine still exist after this period?

The state is heavily indebted to Western donors and is in a difficult situation which it might not overcome in the next decade. The country is in turmoil, the economy has collapsed, industry is struggling to stay afloat and the population, tired of the constant chaos and conscription, is leaving en masse in search of a better life abroad.

Amid all this turbulence and instability, the only constant question remains: do Ukrainian politicians really want to save the country?

Jonathan Schiff is a conservative, engineer, his interests also include geopolitics and political analysis.