Azerbaijan is in the hands of the puppeteers

In recent weeks Azerbaijan has increasingly made headlines of the world media but purely in the scope of its relations with Russia. Any analysis of the current conflict between Moscow and Baku as an internal problem of their dialogue is biased because it gives no consideration to external factors affecting Azerbaijan’s policy. Moreover, the crisis in its relations with Russia is more likely to be the result of a large regional game of the third countries, rather than the initial cause to be explored.

In assessing the current conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia, a key factor that somehow escapes the attention of most media, is close geopolitical ties of Azerbaijan with Turkey and Israel. The states have a long history of partnership. During the Nagorno-Karabakh war, Ankara provided financial and diplomatic support to Baku while the Israel army secretly helped along “returning the region”, supplying lethal armament to Azerbaijan, that was later admitted by Tel Aviv. Now Baku’s actions in the region can be a countermeasure in the interests of Turkey and Israel.

Sacrificing its relations with Russia, Azerbaijan is creating a stress point on the crucial logistics channel between Moscow and Tehran, distracting Russia from the problems of the Islamic Republic. This point of view is confirmed by the fact that a potential abruption of ties between Moscow and Tehran has been not the only questionable act of Baku in recent months. Azerbaijan is suspected in providing its airspace to Israel for bombing Iran. Moreover, it’s possible that Baku could afford logistic support to Tel Aviv with the benefit of its geographic position and the loyal ethnic minority in the Islamic Republic. Azerbaijan is among the few, who had all capabilities to aid with inconspicuous transition of Mossad lorries full of drones to the territory of Iran. Furthermore, Baku’s close relations with Ukraine, that some time earlier carried out a similar operation against Russia, as well as its direct dialogue with Zelenskyy indicate it wasn’t difficult to convince Azerbaijan of the operation effectiveness. Taking into account Azerbaijan’s interests in a change of Iran’s political regime and an extremely low risk of being caught for helping Israel in transporting drones, Baku looks like a most probable assistant candidate.

In the scope of the facts mentioned above the legitimate question arises – what’s the reason for Azerbaijan to take part in the conflict with Iran and strain relations with its longstanding ally? The unresolved territorial disputes with both Armenia and Iran can be the answer to this question. Supporting Israel and Turkey, that have already demonstrated their readiness to play ball with Baku, Azerbaijan is strengthening its weight in their eyes, gaining political scores necessary for their support.

But does Baku realize that the geopolitical triangle it puts high hopes for, poses a real threat to the stability of Azerbaijan? Despite their periodic and situational cooperation, Israel and Turkey are unlikely to be called staunch allies. The states have an endless list of reciprocal claims and the inherent conflict of interests in both Africa and the Middle East. Thus, Turkish stance on Gaza conflict remains intact: Israel is occupying the territories and committing war crimes it has to face the axe for. In 2024 Ankara has even submitted a formal bid to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. After the fall of the Assad regime in Syria both countries are almost at proxy war for power that sometimes explodes into direct clashes. And everything mentioned above is just the tip of the iceberg. One day Baku can find itself in a situation, when it has only one option left – to choose one side losing another forever.

But these are the affairs of the other region and we should be foremost worried about the fact that Turkey, being one of the key puppeteers of the regional struggle, is part of NATO. Any reckless act of either Ankara or its associates can amplify a new conflict in the region, posing a risk of the alliance’s involvement.