Canada and India Will Not Sacrifice Economics For Politics

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau this Sunday surprised popular pop singer Diljit Dosanjh when he stepped on stage to wish the Punjab native good fortune just before the singer’s performance at the Rogers Centre stadium in Downtown Toronto, Canada. A video making its rounds on the internet shows the Canadian PM’s warm greeting and (at least in some circles) gathered praise for promoting and respecting multiculturalism in the country.

"One where a guy from Punjab can make history and sell out stadiums"

Moreover, Trudeau shared an image with Diljit Dosanjh from the event via the micro-blogging site X and captioned it: "Stopped by the Rogers Centre to wish Diljit Dosanjh good luck before his show.”

"Canada is a great country - one where a guy from Punjab can make history and sell out stadiums. Diversity isn't just our strength. It's a superpower," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau added.

Their meeting and its imagery illustrate that diversity is one of Canada's strengths – where people of all religions and caste from across the world receive equal treatment in Canada.

In response to the prime minister's post, Diljit Dosanjh said, "Diversity is Canada's strength. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came to check out history in the making: we sold out the Rogers Centre!”

Relations between India and Canada

A significant contingent of Indian-born people, mostly Sikhs and Punjabis, live in Canada for business and study. Yet, it should be noted that some Radical groups (Pro Khalistan supporters) also “work” actively in Canada plotting to stir discord in India. Many such outfits have also been banned by the Indian Government.

Despite having good relations on the cultural and business front, India and Canada became at cross purposes over the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Canada suspected India's role in Nijjar's killing, while the Indian government made it clear that they are not involved in any such killing and are ready to support the investigation. The diplomatic standoff continues, even at the recent G-7 meeting at which the two prime ministers were cordial but not engaged.

There was, of course, a quite different response to Prime Minister Trudeau's friendly gesture towards Diljit Dosanjh. One headline read: 'Punjabi Singer' Or 'Indian Singer'?

Manjinder Singh Sirsa, BJP National Secretary, on Monday criticized Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for referring to Diljit Dosanjh as a “Punjabi singer” instead of an “Indian singer” in a social media post. It was described by Sirsa as “deliberate mischief through wordplay.”

BJP National Secretary, Sirsa, clarified his remarks saying, "Let me correct this, Mr. Prime Minister - where one guy from INDIA can make history and sell out stadiums." He added, "Your gesture of lauding a fantastic artist like Diljit has been totally overshadowed by your deliberate mischief through wordplay.”

The relations between India and Canada have to say the least been strained after Trudeau's allegation of India's involvement in the murder of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. And this allegation was followed by further accusations from New Delhi of the North American country providing a safe haven for Khalistani terrorists.

Pillars of relations: Immigration and Trade

Trade talks (but not necessarily trade) between India and Canada have taken a hit as tension rises after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said several months ago that authorities were investigating "credible allegations" linking New Delhi's agents to the murder of Sikh separatist leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar. New Delhi dismissed the allegations as "absurd,” and asked Canada instead to crack down on anti-India elements operating within its territory.

There is a lot to lose (and gain) for both countries in the dispute.

Trade talks

Canada said it had paused talks on the proposed treaty with India, just three months after both said they aimed to formalize a deal this year.

Industry estimates show the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Canada and India could boost two-way trade by as much as $6.5 billion, yielding a GDP gain of $3.8 billion to $5.9 billion for Canada by 2035. There is a lot at stake – economically.

Key items of the trade

Steady growth has seen goods trade rising to $8 billion in 2022, with Indian exports to Canada touching $4 billion and imports from Canada also worth $4 billion.

Major imports from Canada include energy products such as coal, coke and briquettes, besides fertilizers, while India exports consumer goods, garments, engineering products such as auto parts, aircraft equipment and electronic items.

Canada's top export to India in 2022 were fossil fuels and related products worth nearly $1 billion, followed by fertilizers worth nearly $748 million, and wood pulp and plant fibers worth about $384 million, according to Trading Economics/UN Comtrade data.

Canada and India overseas investments

Canada is India's 17th largest foreign investor, pouring in more than $3.6 billion since 2000, while Canadian portfolio investors have invested billions of dollars in Indian stock and debt markets.

The Canadian pension fund, CPP, had increased its investment in Indian markets to about $15 billion, in areas such as real estate, renewables and the financial sector by the end of last fiscal year in March 2023.

Big business

More than 600 Canadian companies, including Bombardier and SNC Lavalin, have a strong presence in India, while more than 30 Indian companies, such as infotech majors TCS, Infosys, Wipro have invested billions of dollars in Canada, creating thousands of jobs.

Foreign students in Canada

Since 2018, India has been the largest source country for international students in Canada.

In 2022, their number rose 47% to nearly 320,000, accounting for about 40% of total overseas students, the Canadian Bureau of International Education says, which also helps universities and colleges provide a subsidized education to domestic students.

The Sikhs in Canada

Many analysts say the worsening ties could affect the economic interests of thousands of Sikh families in India's Sikh-majority state of Punjab in the north, since they have relatives in Canada, who remit millions of dollars back home.

The share of Canada's Sikh population has more than doubled in 20 years to 2.1%, according to the country's 2021 census, as a large number of Sikhs migrated from India in search of higher education and jobs.

Yet, reason will prevail, once the posturing has run its course, both India and Canada can and will move beyond the current diplomatic row. Their political relationship will not derail the importance of their mutual economic benefits which are substantial. The concern from everyone is: How long will it take for each country's “sovereign ego” to be mollified so that people in both countries can get back to what is most important to them – living their lives and seeing their friends and families without issues about visas and hyped rhetoric that can lead to something unfortunate, for everyone.