Canada’s Political Landscape Set For Generational Change

Remember, the Brian Mulroney Progressive Conservatives ruled for eight years starting in 1984. Like Justin Trudeau, Mulroney introduced an unpopular tax that cost him popularity. It was meant to right the fiscal ship. Yet the new Goods and Services Tax did not arrest endless deficit budgets.

The Western alienation of recent times also surfaced in the Mulroney years. Winnipeg-based Bristol Aerospace had a technologically superior and lower costing bid to service the Air Force’s CF-18 jets, but political considerations gave Quebec-based Canadair the contract in 1986. The Reform Party appeared in the wake of this decision. Later, failed attempts to amend the Constitution alienated Quebec and prompted the formation of the Bloc Quebecois.

Kim Campbell took over the leaky PC ship and sank it to the ocean’s bottom. In 1993, the Jean Chretien Liberals won a majority government with 177 seats, the Bloc became the Official Opposition with 54, Reform won 52, while the NDP’s nine seats were fourfold greater than the PCs’ 2.

The PCs hobbled under new leadership while Reform failed to break through in the East with new leadership. Paul Martin’s initial popularity prompted the conservative merger that brought Stephen Harper to power in 2006, which he held until 2015.

Now it’s the Liberals’ turn to surrender power after nine years. 338Canada.com expects the Conservatives to win a dominant 237 seats, leaving the Bloc 45, the Liberals 37, the NDP 22, and the Greens 2. It’s not a Campbell-collapse, but it’s close.

Whoever replaces Trudeau will come to power like Campbell did 32 years ago. But then what?

The Liberals need an identity check. They abandoned a centrist, national view to become left-leaning virtue-signaling globalists with authoritarian streaks They and the NDP have embraced identity politics and are hell-bent on net zero emissions, leaving some former supporters behind.

Dan McTeague, an 18-year Scarborough Liberal MP who first interned on Parliament Hill in the Pierre Trudeau era, is predicting a formal Liberal merger with the NDP because MPs in these parties have near-identical outlooks.

No such merger happened after Michael Ignatieff led the Liberals to their worst showing ever of 34 seats in 2011 when McTeague lost his seat. However, the dynamics were different then. Jack Layton led the NDP to the Official Opposition for the first time and had no appetite to surrender anything to the Liberals.

By contrast, current NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh never had the Layton shine. He propped up the current government and cannot shed that stigma. Should she take over her party, the mud would stick worse to former Trudeau deputy Chrystia Freeland.

A Poilievre with a strong electoral mandate is likely to act decisively and shake up the political left. Grassroots people in these camps may exert enough pressure to convince the coalescing parties to join permanently. Their thin bench strength, normally a weakness, might facilitate a merger. Then again, if Mark Carney becomes Liberal leader, that’s less likely to happen.

While it’s clear Canada is on the cusp of a Conservative renewal, a progressive renewal may follow in the receding tide. Canadian politics is about to get even more interesting.

Lee Harding is a Research Fellow for the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.